School of Physical Sciences
Faculty of Sciences
Head of School, Physical Sciences, University of Adelaide.
My research is in the general area of operational earthquake forecasting, in essence the determination of time dependent changes to earthquake probabilities. My work focuses on the computation of Coulomb stress changes which affect earthquake likelihood in time and space, and in combining this physics based approach with geological and statistical models. I was a member of the expert elicitation panel on future seismic hazard in the Canterbury region whose work informed the revised building codes in Christchurch, New Zealand. I was also lead editor of a special issue of the Journal of Geophysical Research on ‘stress transfer, earthquake triggering, and time-dependent seismic hazard’, and am lead author of the review paper that introduces the volume.
Current research activities
- Developing hybrid Coulomb-statistical models for forecasting aftershock rates.
- Analysing the controls on Coulomb triggering in earthquake sequences.
- Assessing the scientific constraints on the applicability of the Coulomb stress technique to time dependent earthquake hazard.
- Investigating methods of communicating changes in earthquake probability
Previous research activities
- Investigated stress interaction and earthquake triggering in a complex 3-D fault network model.
- Modelled the next likely earthquake and tsunami to affect the island of Sumatra.
- Formulated realistic stress transfer rules to simulate stress concentrations in cellular automata models of the earthquake process.
- Investigated earthquake nucleation, rupture, and statistics in heterogeneous cellular automata.
- Developed hybrid cellular automaton – elastic model to simulate mining induced seismicity.
- Investigated temporal and spatial seismicity patterns with heterogeneous bond-breaking computer model.
- Interpreted frictional parameters with physical model that included effects of dilatancy on transients associated with velocity steps.
- Calculated shear strength of natural faults and scaling of frictional parameters with damage mechanics formulation.
- Developed cellular automaton to simulate fractal fragmentation.
Date Position Institution name 2017 - 2018 Deputy Executive Dean, Faculty of Sciences University of Adelaide 2015 Head of School, Physical Sciences University of Adelaide 2013 - 2016 Visiting Scientist GNS Science 2009 - 2014 Director, Environmental Sciences Research Institute University of Ulster 2007 - 2014 Professor of Earthquake Physics University of Ulster 2005 - 2007 Reader in Geophysics University of Ulster 2002 - 2005 Lecturer in Geophysics University of Ulster 1999 - 2002 Research Lecturer in Geophysics University of Ulster 1994 - 1999 Research Officer University of Ulster 1992 - 1993 Visiting Lecturer California State University, Dominguez Hills 1992 - 1992 Geophysicist California Office of Emergency Services 1992 - 1994 Research Associate University of Southern California 1992 - 1990 Visiting Lecturer, Pomona College Pomona College 1988 - 1988 Summer Geophysicist Arco Oil and Gas 1988 - 1992 Research Assistant University of Southern California 1985 - 1987 Teaching Assistant University of Southern California
Date Institution name Country Title 1992 University of Southern California United States Ph.D. Geophysics 1985 University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill United States B.S. Geology
Year Citation 2019 Mohammadi, H., Quigley, M., Steacy, S., & Duffy, B. (2019). Effects of source model variations on Coulomb stress analyses of a multi-fault intraplate earthquake sequence. Tectonophysics, 766, 151-166.
2018 Cattania, C., Werner, M., Marzocchi, W., Hainzl, S., Rhoades, D., Gerstenberger, M., . . . Jordan, T. (2018). The forecasting skill of physics-based seismicity models during the 2010-2012 canterbury, New Zealand, earthquake sequence. Seismological Research Letters, 89(4), 1238-1250.
DOI Scopus8 WoS8
2018 Reverso, T., Steacy, S., & Marsan, D. (2018). A hybrid ETAS-coulomb approach to forecast spatiotemporal aftershock rates. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 123(11), 9750-9763.
2016 Sunbul, F., Nalbant, S., Simão, N., & Steacy, S. (2016). Investigating viscoelastic postseismic deformation due to large earthquakes in East Anatolia, Turkey. Journal of Geodynamics, 94-95, 50-58.
DOI Scopus2 WoS1
2016 Bucholc, M., & Steacy, S. (2016). Tidal stress triggering of earthquakes in Southern California. Geophysical Journal International, 205(2), 681-693.
DOI Scopus4 WoS2
2014 Steacy, S., Gerstenberger, M., Williams, C., Rhoades, D., & Christophersen, A. (2014). A new hybrid Coulomb/statistical model for forecasting aftershock rates. Geophysical Journal International, 196(2), 918-923.
DOI Scopus22 WoS23
2014 Steacy, S., Jimenez, A., & Holden, C. (2014). Stress triggering and the Canterbury earthquake sequence. Geophysical Journal International, 196(1), 473-480.
DOI Scopus14 WoS15
2013 Nalbant, S., McCloskey, J., Steacy, S., NicBhloscaidh, M., & Murphy, S. (2013). Interseismic coupling, stress evolution, and earthquake slip on the Sunda megathrust. Geophysical Research Letters, 40(16), 4204-4208.
DOI Scopus11 WoS11
2011 Zechar, J., Hardebeck, J., Michael, A., Naylor, M., Steacy, S., Wiemer, S., & Zhuang, J. (2011). Community online resource for statistical seismicity analysis. Seismological Research Letters, 82(5), 686-690.
DOI Scopus4 WoS4
2008 McCloskey, J., Antonioli, A., Piatanesi, A., Sieh, K., Steacy, S., Nalbant, S., . . . Dunlop, P. (2008). Tsunami threat in the Indian Ocean from a future megathrust earthquake west of Sumatra. Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 265(1-2), 61-81.
DOI Scopus71 WoS59
2007 McCloskey, J., Antonioli, A., Piatanesi, A., Sieh, K., Steacy, S., Nalbant, S., . . . Dunlop, P. (2007). Near-field propagation of tsunamis from megathrust earthquakes. Geophysical Research Letters, 34(14), 5 pages.
DOI Scopus17 WoS16
2007 Hetherington, A., & Steacy, S. (2007). Fault heterogeneity and earthquake scaling. Geophysical Research Letters, 34(16), 4 pages.
DOI Scopus2 WoS2
2006 Nalbant, S., Steacy, S., & Mccloskey, J. (2006). Stress transfer relations among the earthquakes that occurred in Kerman province, southern Iran since 1981. Geophysical Journal International, 167(1), 309-318.
DOI Scopus21 WoS17
2005 Steacy, S., Gomberg, J., & Cocco, M. (2005). Introduction to special section: Stress transfer, earthquake triggering, and time-dependent seismic hazard. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 110(5), 1-12.
DOI Scopus166 WoS140
2005 Nalbant, S., Steacy, S., Sieh, K., Natawidjaja, D., & McCloskey, J. (2005). Seismology: Earthquake risk on the Sunda trench. Nature, 435(7043), 756-757.
DOI Scopus114 WoS104 Europe PMC5
2005 McCloskey, J., Nalbant, S., & Steacy, S. (2005). Indonesian earthquake: Earthquake risk from co-seismic stress. Nature, 434(7031), 291.
DOI Scopus159 WoS133 Europe PMC7
2005 Nalbant, S., McCloskey, J., & Steacy, S. (2005). Lessons on the calculation of static stress loading from the 2003 Bingol, Turkey earthquake. Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 235(3-4), 632-640.
DOI Scopus8 WoS6
2005 Steacy, S., Nalbant, S., McCloskey, J., Nostro, C., Scotti, O., & Baumont, D. (2005). Onto what planes should Coulomb stress perturbations be resolved?. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 110(5), 1-14.
DOI Scopus42 WoS42
2004 Steacy, S., Marsan, D., Nalbant, S., & McCloskey, J. (2004). Sensitivity of static stress calculations to the earthquake slip distribution. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 109(4), 16 pages.
DOI Scopus53 WoS50
2003 Utkucu, M., Nalbant, S., McCloskey, J., Steacy, S., & Alptekin, O. (2003). Slip distribution and stress changes associated with the 1999 November 12, Düzce (Turkey) earthquake (M<inf>w</inf> = 7.1). Geophysical Journal International, 153(1), 229-241.
DOI Scopus34 WoS34
2003 McCloskey, J., Nalbant, S., Steacy, S., Nostro, C., Scotti, O., & Baumont, D. (2003). Structural constraints on the spatial distribution of aftershocks. Geophysical Research Letters, 30(12), 4 pages.
DOI Scopus46 WoS47
2002 Nalbant, S., McCloskey, J., Steacy, S., & Barka, A. (2002). Stress accumulation and increased seismic risk in Eastern Turkey. Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 195(3-4), 291-298.
DOI Scopus66 WoS63
2000 Marsan, D., Bean, C., Steacy, S., & McCloskey, J. (2000). Observation of diffusion processes in earthquake populations and implications for the predictability of seismicity systems. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 105(B12), 28081-28094.
DOI Scopus45 WoS42
1999 Steacy, S., & McCloskey, J. (1999). Heterogeneity and the earthquake magnitude-frequency distribution. Geophysical Research Letters, 26(7), 899-902.
DOI Scopus21 WoS20
1999 Marsan, D., Bean, C., Steacy, S., & McCloskey, J. (1999). Spatio-temporal analysis of stress diffusion in a mining-induced seismicity system. Geophysical Research Letters, 26(24), 3697-3700.
DOI Scopus23 WoS23
1998 Steacy, S., & McCloskey, J. (1998). What controls an earthquake's size? Results from a heterogeneous cellular automaton. Geophysical Journal International, 133(1), F11-F14.
DOI Scopus26 WoS25
1996 Steacy, S., McCloskey, J., Bean, C., & Ren, J. (1996). Heterogeneity in a self-organized critical earthquake model. Geophysical Research Letters, 23(4), 383-386.
DOI Scopus21 WoS23
1994 Sammis, C., & Steacy, S. (1994). The micromechanics of friction in a granular layer. Pure and Applied Geophysics PAGEOPH, 142(3-4), 777-794.
DOI Scopus46 WoS42
1992 Steacy, S., & Sammis, C. (1992). A damage mechanics model for fault zone friction. Journal of Geophysical Research, 97(B1), 587-594.
DOI Scopus12 WoS11
1991 Steacy, S., & Sammis, C. (1991). An automaton for fractal patterns of fragmentation. Nature, 353(6341), 250-252.
DOI Scopus95 WoS88
Year Citation 2016 Welsh, M., Steacy, S., Begg, S., & Navarro, D. (2016). A tale of two disasters: biases in risk communication. In A. Papafragou, D. Grodner, D. Mirman, & J. Trueswell (Eds.), Proceedings of the 38th Annual Cognitive Science Society Meeting (pp. 544-549). Online: CSS. 1997 Steacy, S. J., McCloskey, J., Bean, C. J., & Ren, J. W. (1997). Simulating seismicity in Creighton Mine: A 3-D self-organized critical model. In S. J. Gibowicz, & S. Lasocki (Eds.), ROCKBURSTS AND SEISMICITY IN MINES (pp. 201-205). KRAKOW, POLAND: A A BALKEMA PUBLISHERS.
Australian Research Council, Origins and Distributions of Intraplate Earthquakes, M.C. Quigley, S. Steacy, and L.N. Moresi, Jan. 2017 – Dec. 2019.
Natural Environment Research Council, PURE Associates Scheme, J. McCloskey, M. Hope, S. Steacy, and P. Dunlop, Dec. 2013 – May 2014.
European Commission Framework VII: Strategies and Tools for Real Time Earthquake Risk Reduction (REAKT), S. Steacy, Sept. 2011 – August 2014.
European Science Foundation / Austrian Science Fund (FWF): Research conference - Continuing Challenges In Earthquake Dynamics – New Methods For Observing and Modelling A Multi-Scale System, S. Steacy, D. Marsan, S. Hainzl, and A. Christophersen, conference held Sept. 2011.
Natural Environment Research Council: Testing a hybrid Coulomb/statistical model of aftershock occurrence, S. Steacy, Feb. 2010 – Jan. 2012.
Leverhulme Trust: Research Fellowship – Rate-state friction and earthquake probabilities, S. Steacy, Sept. 2008 – August 2010.
Natural Environment Research Council: Evaluation of historical earthquake interaction and seismic risk to western Sumatra, J. McCloskey, S. Steacy, and S. S. Nalbant, July 2008 – Dec. 2009.
European Science Foundation / Austrian Science Fund (FWF): Research conference – New challenges in earthquake dynamics: Observing and modeling a multi-scale system, D. Marsan, S. Steacy, S. Hainzl, and A. Helmstetter, conference held Oct. 2008.
Natural Environment Research Council: Urgent assessment of the earthquake and tsunami hazard in western Sumatra following the 09/07 Mentawai Islands earthquake sequence, J. McCloskey, S. Steacy, and S. S. Nalbant, Nov. 2007 – Aug. 2008.
Natural Environment Research Council: Stress interaction, rate-state friction, and earthquake triggering, S. Steacy, April 2007 – Dec. 2009.
Griffiths Geoscience Research Awards: Capability building for the enhanced geophysical interpretation of the dynamics of CO2 sequestration, J. McCloskey, S. Nalbant, S. Steacy, and R. Cassidy, Sept. 2007 – June 2013
Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council: Assessing tsunami hazard in Sumatra: A Royal Society Summer Science exhibit, S. Steacy and J. McCloskey, July – Oct. 2006.
Natural Environment Research Council: Tsunami Risk in the Indian Ocean from threatened M>8 event under Mentawai Islands, J. McCloskey, S. Steacy, and S. S. Nalbant, Oct. 2005 – Dec. 2006.
Natural Environment Research Council: The influence of viscoelastic relaxation on the effective duration of Coulomb stress perturbations, S. S. Nalbant, J. McCloskey, and S. Steacy, £26,924, Aug. 2005 – July, 2007.
Natural Environment Research Council: Urgent assessment of the location and orientation of the Bingöl rupture by mapping surface breaks, J. McCloskey, S. Steacy, and S.S. Nalbant, June – Oct. 2003.
European Commission Framework VI Marie Curie: Constrained heterogeneous loading of complex fault networks (CONSTRAIN), S. Steacy and J. McCloskey, Feb. 2005 – Jan. 2007.
Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council: An investigation of the origin and nature of the Gutenberg-Richter relation, S. Steacy, J. McCloskey, and P. Morrow, March 2002 – Feb. 2004.
European Commission Framework V: Towards practical, real-time estimation of spatial aftershock probabilities: a feasibility study in earthquake hazard (PRESAP), J. McCloskey and S. Steacy, June 2000 – Sept. 2003.
Natural Environment Research Council: An investigation of the relation between Coulomb stress perturbations, large aftershocks, and fault structure, S. Steacy and J. McCloskey, Dec. 1999 – Dec. 2001.
The University of Adelaide
- Principles and Practice of Research (PPR1): Led two workshops on ‘hot topic’ of climate change, 2017.
- Supervisor of two honours projects in earthquake physics, 2016.
- Supervisor of one PPR2 student, 2016.
University of Ulster
- How the Earth Works (EGM105): Coordinator of module that provided first year students with a broad understanding of the formation of the universe, solar system, and Earth as well as an overview of plate tectonics, rocks and minerals, and Earth surface processes.
- Natural and Environment Hazards (EGM517): Coordinator, designer, and main instructor of final year module that illustrated the science underlying several physical and climatic natural hazards, techniques for mitigation, and the interaction between the natural and human environments in assessing risk.
- Environmental Issues (EGM104): Contributor to module that provided first year students with a broad overview of important environmental problems.
- Environmental Science Synoptic Paper (EGM504): Lecturer and tutor in module that helped final year students integrate their learning from the overall course.
- Environmental Science Dissertation (EGM503): Supervisor and marker of undergraduate dissertations.
- Atmospheric and Oceanic Interactions (EGM305): Coordinator, principal designer, and principal instructor of module that examined basic physics of atmospheric and oceanic circulation and the interaction between them over a range of temporal and spatial scales.
- Principles and Practice of Environmental Science (ENS131): Coordinator, co-designer, and contributor to module that enabled first year students with varied math and science backgrounds to develop basic scientific and numeracy skills, as well as techniques for approaching and solving scientific problems.
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