Professor Sandy Steacy
Head of School, Physical Sciences, University of Adelaide.
My research is in the general area of operational earthquake forecasting, in essence the determination of time dependent changes to earthquake probabilities. My work focuses on the computation of Coulomb stress changes which affect earthquake likelihood in time and space, and in combining this physics based approach with geological and statistical models. I was a member of the expert elicitation panel on future seismic hazard in the Canterbury region whose work informed the revised building codes in Christchurch, New Zealand. I was also lead editor of a special issue of the Journal of Geophysical Research on ‘stress transfer, earthquake triggering, and time-dependent seismic hazard’, and am lead author of the review paper that introduces the volume.
Current research activities
- Developing hybrid Coulomb-statistical models for forecasting aftershock rates.
- Analysing the controls on Coulomb triggering in earthquake sequences.
- Assessing the scientific constraints on the applicability of the Coulomb stress technique to time dependent earthquake hazard.
- Investigating methods of communicating changes in earthquake probability
Previous research activities
- Investigated stress interaction and earthquake triggering in a complex 3-D fault network model.
- Modelled the next likely earthquake and tsunami to affect the island of Sumatra.
- Formulated realistic stress transfer rules to simulate stress concentrations in cellular automata models of the earthquake process.
- Investigated earthquake nucleation, rupture, and statistics in heterogeneous cellular automata.
- Developed hybrid cellular automaton – elastic model to simulate mining induced seismicity.
- Investigated temporal and spatial seismicity patterns with heterogeneous bond-breaking computer model.
- Interpreted frictional parameters with physical model that included effects of dilatancy on transients associated with velocity steps.
- Calculated shear strength of natural faults and scaling of frictional parameters with damage mechanics formulation.
- Developed cellular automaton to simulate fractal fragmentation.
|2017||Deputy Executive Dean, Faculty of Sciences||University of Adelaide|
|2015||Head of School, Physical Sciences||University of Adelaide|
|2013||Visiting Scientist||GNS Science|
|2009 - 2014||Director, Environmental Sciences Research Institute||University of Ulster|
|2007 - 2014||Professor of Earthquake Physics||University of Ulster|
|2005 - 2007||Reader in Geophysics||University of Ulster|
|2002 - 2005||Lecturer in Geophysics||University of Ulster|
|1999 - 2002||Research Lecturer in Geophysics||University of Ulster|
|1994 - 1999||Research Officer||University of Ulster|
|1992 - 1993||Visiting Lecturer||California State University, Dominguez Hills|
|1992 - 1992||Geophysicist||California Office of Emergency Services|
|1992 - 1994||Research Associate||University of Southern California|
|1992 - 1990||Visiting Lecturer, Pomona College||Pomona College|
|1988 - 1988||Summer Geophysicist||Arco Oil and Gas|
|1988 - 1992||Research Assistant||University of Southern California|
|1985 - 1987||Teaching Assistant||University of Southern California|
|1992||University of Southern California||United States||Ph.D. Geophysics|
|1985||University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill||United States||B.S. Geology|
|2016||Sunbul, F., Nalbant, S., Simão, N. & Steacy, S. (2016). Investigating viscoelastic postseismic deformation due to large earthquakes in East Anatolia, Turkey. Journal of Geodynamics, 94-95, 50-58.
|2016||Bucholc, M. & Steacy, S. (2016). Tidal stress triggering of earthquakes in Southern California. Geophysical Journal International, 205, 2, 681-693.
|2014||Steacy, S., Gerstenberger, M., Williams, C., Rhoades, D. & Christophersen, A. (2014). A new hybrid Coulomb/statistical model for forecasting aftershock rates. Geophysical Journal International, 196, 2, 918-923.
|2014||Steacy, S., Jimenez, A. & Holden, C. (2014). Stress triggering and the Canterbury earthquake sequence. Geophysical Journal International, 196, 1, 473-480.
|2013||Nalbant, S., McCloskey, J., Steacy, S., NicBhloscaidh, M. & Murphy, S. (2013). Interseismic coupling, stress evolution, and earthquake slip on the Sunda megathrust. Geophysical Research Letters, 40, 16, 4204-4208.
|2011||Zechar, J., Hardebeck, J., Michael, A., Naylor, M., Steacy, S., Wiemer, S. & Zhuang, J. (2011). Community online resource for statistical seismicity analysis. Seismological Research Letters, 82, 5, 686-690.
|2008||McCloskey, J., Antonioli, A., Piatanesi, A., Sieh, K., Steacy, S., Nalbant, S. ... Dunlop, P. (2008). Tsunami threat in the Indian Ocean from a future megathrust earthquake west of Sumatra. Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 265, 1-2, 61-81.
|2007||Hetherington, A. & Steacy, S. (2007). Fault heterogeneity and earthquake scaling. Geophysical Research Letters, 34, 16, -.
|2007||McCloskey, J., Antonioli, A., Piatanesi, A., Sieh, K., Steacy, S., Nalbant, S. ... Dunlop, P. (2007). Near-field propagation of tsunamis from megathrust earthquakes. Geophysical Research Letters, 34, 14, -.
|2006||Nalbant, S., Steacy, S. & Mccloskey, J. (2006). Stress transfer relations among the earthquakes that occurred in Kerman province, southern Iran since 1981. Geophysical Journal International, 167, 1, 309-318.
|2005||Steacy, S., Nalbant, S., McCloskey, J., Nostro, C., Scotti, O. & Baumont, D. (2005). Onto what planes should Coulomb stress perturbations be resolved?. Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth, 110, 5, 1-14.
|2005||Nalbant, S., McCloskey, J. & Steacy, S. (2005). Lessons on the calculation of static stress loading from the 2003 Bingol, Turkey earthquake. Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 235, 3-4, 632-640.
|2005||Nalbant, S., Steacy, S., Sieh, K., Natawidjaja, D. & McCloskey, J. (2005). Seismology: Earthquake risk on the Sunda trench. Nature, 435, 7043, 756-757.
|2005||McCloskey, J., Nalbant, S. & Steacy, S. (2005). Indonesian earthquake: Earthquake risk from co-seismic stress. Nature, 434, 7031, 291-291.
|2005||Steacy, S., Gomberg, J. & Cocco, M. (2005). Introduction to special section: Stress transfer, earthquake triggering, and time-dependent seismic hazard. Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth, 110, 5, 1-12.
|2004||Steacy, S., Marsan, D., Nalbant, S. & McCloskey, J. (2004). Sensitivity of static stress calculations to the earthquake slip distribution. Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth, 109, 4, -.
|2003||Utkucu, M., Nalbant, S., McCloskey, J., Steacy, S. & Alptekin, O. (2003). Slip distribution and stress changes associated with the 1999 November 12, Düzce (Turkey) earthquake (Mw = 7.1). Geophysical Journal International, 153, 1, 229-241.
|2003||McCloskey, J., Nalbant, S., Steacy, S., Nostro, C., Scotti, O. & Baumont, D. (2003). Structural constraints on the spatial distribution of aftershocks. Geophysical Research Letters, 30, 12, 12-11.
|2002||Nalbant, S., McCloskey, J., Steacy, S. & Barka, A. (2002). Stress accumulation and increased seismic risk in Eastern Turkey. Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 195, 3-4, 291-298.
|2000||Marsan, D., Bean, C., Steacy, S. & McCloskey, J. (2000). Observation of diffusion processes in earthquake populations and implications for the predictability of seismicity systems. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 105, B12, 28081-28094.
|1999||Steacy, S. & McCloskey, J. (1999). Heterogeneity and the earthquake magnitude-frequency distribution. Geophysical Research Letters, 26, 7, 899-902.
|1999||Marsan, D., Bean, C., Steacy, S. & McCloskey, J. (1999). Spatio-temporal analysis of stress diffusion in a mining-induced seismicity system. Geophysical Research Letters, 26, 24, 3697-3700.
|1998||Steacy, S. & McCloskey, J. (1998). What controls an earthquake's size? Results from a heterogeneous cellular automaton. Geophysical Journal International, 133, 1, F11-F14.
|1996||Steacy, S., McCloskey, J., Bean, C. & Ren, J. (1996). Heterogeneity in a self-organized critical earthquake model. Geophysical Research Letters, 23, 4, 383-386.
|1994||Sammis, C. & Steacy, S. (1994). The micromechanics of friction in a granular layer. Pure and Applied Geophysics PAGEOPH, 142, 3-4, 777-794.
|1992||Steacy, S. & Sammis, C. (1992). A damage mechanics model for fault zone friction. Journal of Geophysical Research, 97, B1, 587-594.
|1991||Steacy, S. & Sammis, C. (1991). An automaton for fractal patterns of fragmentation. Nature, 353, 6341, 250-252.
|2016||Welsh, M., Steacy, S., Begg, S. & Navarro, D. (2016). A tale of two disasters: biases in risk communication. The 38th Annual Meeting of the Cognitive Science Society (COGSCI). A. Papafragou, D. Grodner, D. Mirman & J. Trueswell (Eds.) Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.|
|1997||Steacy, S. J., McCloskey, J., Bean, C. J. & Ren, J. W. (1997). Simulating seismicity in Creighton Mine: A 3-D self-organized critical model. 4th International Symposium on Rockbursts and Seismicity in Mines. S. J. Gibowicz & S. Lasocki (Eds.) KRAKOW, POLAND.|
Natural Environment Research Council, PURE Associates Scheme, J. McCloskey, M. Hope, S. Steacy, and P. Dunlop, Dec. 2013 – May 2014.
European Commission Framework VII: Strategies and Tools for Real Time Earthquake Risk Reduction (REAKT), S. Steacy, Sept. 2011 – August 2014.
European Science Foundation / Austrian Science Fund (FWF): Research conference - Continuing Challenges In Earthquake Dynamics – New Methods For Observing and Modelling A Multi-Scale System, S. Steacy, D. Marsan, S. Hainzl, and A. Christophersen, conference held Sept. 2011.
Natural Environment Research Council: Testing a hybrid Coulomb/statistical model of aftershock occurrence, S. Steacy, Feb. 2010 – Jan. 2012.
Leverhulme Trust: Research Fellowship – Rate-state friction and earthquake probabilities, S. Steacy, Sept. 2008 – August 2010.
Natural Environment Research Council: Evaluation of historical earthquake interaction and seismic risk to western Sumatra, J. McCloskey, S. Steacy, and S. S. Nalbant, July 2008 – Dec. 2009.
European Science Foundation / Austrian Science Fund (FWF): Research conference – New challenges in earthquake dynamics: Observing and modeling a multi-scale system, D. Marsan, S. Steacy, S. Hainzl, and A. Helmstetter, conference held Oct. 2008.
Natural Environment Research Council: Urgent assessment of the earthquake and tsunami hazard in western Sumatra following the 09/07 Mentawai Islands earthquake sequence, J. McCloskey, S. Steacy, and S. S. Nalbant, Nov. 2007 – Aug. 2008.
Natural Environment Research Council: Stress interaction, rate-state friction, and earthquake triggering, S. Steacy, April 2007 – Dec. 2009.
Griffiths Geoscience Research Awards: Capability building for the enhanced geophysical interpretation of the dynamics of CO2 sequestration, J. McCloskey, S. Nalbant, S. Steacy, and R. Cassidy, Sept. 2007 – June 2013
Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council: Assessing tsunami hazard in Sumatra: A Royal Society Summer Science exhibit, S. Steacy and J. McCloskey, July – Oct. 2006.
Natural Environment Research Council: Tsunami Risk in the Indian Ocean from threatened M>8 event under Mentawai Islands, J. McCloskey, S. Steacy, and S. S. Nalbant, Oct. 2005 – Dec. 2006.
Natural Environment Research Council: The influence of viscoelastic relaxation on the effective duration of Coulomb stress perturbations, S. S. Nalbant, J. McCloskey, and S. Steacy, £26,924, Aug. 2005 – July, 2007.
Natural Environment Research Council: Urgent assessment of the location and orientation of the Bingöl rupture by mapping surface breaks, J. McCloskey, S. Steacy, and S.S. Nalbant, June – Oct. 2003.
European Commission Framework VI Marie Curie: Constrained heterogeneous loading of complex fault networks (CONSTRAIN), S. Steacy and J. McCloskey, Feb. 2005 – Jan. 2007.
Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council: An investigation of the origin and nature of the Gutenberg-Richter relation, S. Steacy, J. McCloskey, and P. Morrow, March 2002 – Feb. 2004.
European Commission Framework V: Towards practical, real-time estimation of spatial aftershock probabilities: a feasibility study in earthquake hazard (PRESAP), J. McCloskey and S. Steacy, June 2000 – Sept. 2003.
Natural Environment Research Council: An investigation of the relation between Coulomb stress perturbations, large aftershocks, and fault structure, S. Steacy and J. McCloskey, Dec. 1999 – Dec. 2001.