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Dr Mark Thyer

Mark Thyer
Associate Professor
School of Civil, Environmental and Mining Engineering
Faculty of Engineering, Computer and Mathematical Sciences

Mark Thyer is an Associate Professor in Civil and Environmental Engineering at the University of Adelaide. He has over 17 years research experience in developing physical-statistical models to enhance predictions for hydrological, environmental and water resource models.

His research interests include flood/drought risk assessment; long-term climate variability, quantifying predictive uncertainty in hydrological models and behavourial water use modelling for integrated urban water management. He is an internationally recognised expert on use approaches to quantify of uncertainty in hydrological predictions. He has published numerous journal papers in top international water resources which are highly cited and is co-investigator on research grants worth over $5 million.

Mark has undertaken consultancy projects for many water supply authorities and regularly collaborates with local, national and international institutions, such as CSIRO and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology and the South Australian Goyder Institute for Water Research.

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External Profiles

Dr Mark Thyer

Mark Thyer is an Associate Professor in Civil and Environmental Engineering at the University of Adelaide. He has over 17 years research experience in developing physical-statistical models to enhance predictions for hydrological, environmental and water resource models.

His research interests include flood/drought risk assessment; long-term climate variability, quantifying predictive uncertainty in hydrological models and behavourial water use modelling for integrated urban water management. He is an internationally recognised expert on use approaches to quantify of uncertainty in hydrological predictions. He has published numerous journal papers in top international water resources which are highly cited and is co-investigator on research grants worth over $5 million.

Mark has undertaken consultancy projects for many water supply authorities and regularly collaborates with local, national and international institutions, such as CSIRO and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology and the South Australian Goyder Institute for Water Research.

Eligible to supervise Masters and PhD — email supervisor to discuss availability.

Research Interests

Developing innovative physical-statistical approaches to enhance predictions for water modelling in three focus areas:

Climate variability and rainfall/streamflow simulation for flood/drought risk assessment
  • Incorporating climate processes into stochastic models to enhance drought risk assessment.
  • Bayesian approaches to assess predictive uncertainty
  • Incorporating spatial-temporal rainfall variability to enhance flood risk assessment
Streamflow simulation using hydrological models
  • Improving probabilistic predictions of streamflow simulation for catchment models 
  • Using innovate diagnostics/auxiliary data to evaluate hydrological models
Behavioural water use simulation for Integrated Urban Water Management
  • Development of approaches for modelling household water use that capture the temporal and spatial behavioural dynamics.
Career Highlights
  • Over 17 years research experience in developing physical-statistical models to enhance predictions for hydrological/environmental/water resources models
  • Internationally recognised expert on use of Bayesian approaches to quantify impact of uncertainty (input/parameter/data) in stochastic hydrological models
  • 30 journal papers in the top international water resources journals (Water Resources Research and Journal of Hydrology)
  • Co-Investigator on Research Grants worth over $5 million dollars
  • Undertaken consultancy projects on stochastic modelling and drought risk assessment for Hunter Water Corporation, Gosford-Wyong Water Supply Authority, Sydney Catchment Authority, and Wimmera Mallee Pipeline Project
  • Associate Editor for Australian Journal of Water Resources.
  • Regularly review ARC grant applications and journal papers for top international journals
  • Invited by CRC for Catchment Hydrology to contribute models to the stochastic climate library of the catchment modelling toolkit
  • Research leader for eWater CRC project on development of behavioural end-use stochastic simulator (BESS) for household water use simulation, incorporated into eWater’s Urban Developer tool. 

Appointments

Date Position Institution name
2016 Associate Professor University of Adelaide
2010 - 2015 Senior Lecturer University of Adelaide
2009 - 2009 Senior Lecturer University of Newcastle
2004 - 2008 Lecturer University of Newcastle
2003 - 2004 Water Resource Engineer Tonkin Consulting
2001 - 2002 Postdoctoral Researcher University of British Columbia

Awards and Achievements

Date Type Title Institution Name Country Amount
2015 Award Ministers Award for Excellence in Water Sustainability for "SA Climate Ready Project" South Australian Water Industry Alliance Australia
2014 Award Research Spotlight Award from American Geophysical Union (top 5% of papers in AGU) for Westra et al (2014) American Geophysical Union United States
2014 Award Research Spotlight Award from American Geophysical Union (top 5% of Papers in AGU) for Evin et al (2014) American Geophysical Union United States
2014 Award Editors Highlight Award from Water Resources Research (top 5% of papers in WRR) for Evin et al (2014) Water Resources Research United States
2007 Research Award Pro-Vice Chancellor’s Award for Research Excellence University of Newcastle Australia
1999 Award Best Student Presentation Award Water 99 Joint Congress Australia

Education

Date Institution name Country Title
2004 - 2006 University of Newcastle Australia Australia Graduate Certificate in Tertiary Teaching
2001 University of Newcastle Australia Australia PhD, Doctor of Philosophy in Civil Engineering
1993 - 1996 University of Adelaide Australia Bachelor Degree (1st Class Honours) in Civil Engineering

Research Interests

Journals

Year Citation
2018 Wright, D., Thyer, M., Westra, S., & McInerney, D. (2018). A hybrid framework for quantifying the influence of data in hydrological model calibration. Journal of Hydrology, 561, 211-222.
DOI
2018 Bennett, B., Thyer, M., Leonard, M., Lambert, M., & Bates, B. (2018). A comprehensive and systematic evaluation framework for a parsimonious daily rainfall field model. Journal of Hydrology, 556, 1123-1138.
DOI Scopus5 WoS3
2018 Gibbs, M., McInerney, D., Humphrey, G., Thyer, M., Maier, H., Dandy, G., & Kavetski, D. (2018). State updating and calibration period selection to improve dynamic monthly streamflow forecasts for an environmental flow management application. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 22(1), 871-887.
DOI Scopus2 WoS2
2018 McInerney, D., Thyer, M., Kavetski, D., Githui, F., Thayalakumaran, T., Liu, M., & Kuczera, G. (2018). The Importance of Spatio‐Temporal Variability in Irrigation Inputs for Hydrological Modelling of Irrigated Catchments. Water Resources Research, in press.
DOI
2018 Wright, D., Thyer, M., Westra, S., Renard, B., & McInerney, D. (2018). A generalised approach for identifying influential data in hydrological modelling. Environmental Modelling and Software, in press.
DOI
2018 Woldemeskel, F., McInerney, D., Lerat, J., Thyer, M., Kavetski, D., Shin, D., . . . Kuczera, G. (2018). Evaluating residual error approaches for post-processing monthly and seasonal streamflow forecasts. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 1-40.
DOI
2018 McInerney, D., Thyer, M., Kavetski, D., Bennett, B., Lerat, J., Gibbs, M., & Kuczera, G. (2018). A simplified approach to produce probabilistic hydrological model predictions. Environmental Modelling & Software, 109, 306-314.
DOI
2018 DiMatteo, M., Lang, R., Maier, H., Thyer, M. A., Simpson, A., & Dandy, G. (2018). Controlling rainwater storage as a system: An opportunity to reduce urban flood peaks for rare, long duration storms. Environmental Modelling and Software, 111, 34-41.
DOI
2017 McInerney, D., Thyer, M., Kavetski, D., Lerat, J., & Kuczera, G. (2017). Improving probabilistic prediction of daily streamflow by identifying Pareto optimal approaches for modeling heteroscedastic residual errors. Water Resources Research, 53(3), 2199-2239.
DOI Scopus14 WoS11
2017 Morón Polanco, S., Amos, K., Edmonds, D., Payenberg, T., Sun, X., & Thyer, M. (2017). Avulsion triggering by El Niño−Southern Oscillation and tectonic forcing: the case of the tropical Magdalena River, Colombia. Geological Society of America Bulletin, 129(9/10), 1300-1313.
DOI Scopus2 WoS2
2016 Kiem, A., Johnson, F., Westra, S., van Dijk, A., Evans, J., O Donnell, A., . . . Mehrotra, R. (2016). Natural hazards in Australia: droughts. Climatic Change, 139(1), 37-54.
DOI Scopus28 WoS26
2016 Bennett, B., Lambert, M., Thyer, M., Bates, B. C., & Leonard, M. (2016). Estimating extreme spatial rainfall intensities. Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, 21(3), 04015074-1-04015074-12.
DOI Scopus4 WoS2
2016 Li, J., Thyer, M., Lambert, M., Kuzera, G., & Metcalfe, A. (2016). Incorporating seasonality into event-based joint probability methods for predicting flood frequency: a hybrid causative event approach. Journal of Hydrology, 533, 40-52.
DOI Scopus4 WoS4
2015 Siebentritt, M., Green, G., Charles, S., Fu, G., Westra, S., Thyer, M. A., & van der Linden, L. (2015). The SA Climate Ready Project. Water, 42(2), 64-68.
2015 Westra, S., Renard, B., & Thyer, M. (2015). The ENSO-precipitation teleconnection and its modulation by the interdecadal pacific oscillation. Journal of Climate, 28(12), 4753-4773.
DOI Scopus10 WoS10
2015 Wright, D., Thyer, M., & Westra, S. (2015). Influential point detection diagnostics in the context of hydrological model calibration. Journal of Hydrology, 527, 1161-1172.
DOI Scopus3 WoS3
2015 Sun, X., Renard, B., Thyer, M., Westra, S., & Lang, M. (2015). A global analysis of the asymmetric effect of ENSO on extreme precipitation. Journal of Hydrology, 530, 51-65.
DOI Scopus24 WoS23
2014 Westra, S., Thyer, M., Leonard, M., Kavetski, D., & Lambert, M. (2014). A strategy for diagnosing and interpreting hydrological model nonstationarity. Water Resources Research, 50(6), 5090-5113.
DOI Scopus38 WoS35
2014 Sun, X., Thyer, M., Renard, B., & Lang, M. (2014). A general regional frequency analysis framework for quantifying local-scale climate effects: a case study of ENSO effects on Southeast Queensland rainfall. Journal of Hydrology, 512, 53-68.
DOI Scopus27 WoS26
2014 Evin, G., Thyer, M., Kavetski, D., McInerney, D., & Kuczera, G. (2014). Comparison of joint versus postprocessor approaches for hydrological uncertainty estimation accounting for error autocorrelation and heteroscedasticity. Water Resources Research, 50(3), 2350-2375.
DOI Scopus49 WoS42
2014 Li, J., Thyer, M., Lambert, M., Kuczera, G., & Metcalfe, A. (2014). An efficient causative event-based approach for deriving the annual flood frequency distribution. Journal of Hydrology, 510, 412-423.
DOI Scopus14 WoS13
2013 Henley, B., Thyer, M., & Kuczera, G. (2013). Climate driver informed short-term drought risk evaluation. Water Resources Research, 49(5), 2317-2326.
DOI Scopus12 WoS10
2013 Evin, G., Kavetski, D., Thyer, M., & Kuczera, G. (2013). Pitfalls and improvements in the joint inference of heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation in hydrological model calibration. Water Resources Research, 49(7), 4518-4524.
DOI Scopus43 WoS39
2011 Renard, B., Kavetski, D., Leblois, E., Thyer, M., Kuczera, G., & Franks, S. (2011). Toward a reliable decomposition of predictive uncertainty in hydrological modeling: Characterizing rainfall errors using conditional simulation. Water Resources Research, 47(11), 1-21.
DOI Scopus100 WoS92
2011 Henley, B., Thyer, M., Kuczera, G., & Franks, S. (2011). Climate-informed stochastic hydrological modeling: Incorporating decadal-scale variability using paleo data. Water Resources Research, 47(11), 1-14.
DOI Scopus28 WoS26
2011 Thyer, M., Leonard, M., Kavetski, D., Need, S., & Renard, B. (2011). The open source RFortran library for accessing R from Fortran, with applications in environmental modelling. Environmental Modelling & Software, 26(2), 219-234.
DOI Scopus14 WoS12
2010 Kuczera, G., Renard, B., Thyer, M., & Kavetski, D. (2010). There are no hydrological monsters, just models and observations with large uncertainties!. Hydrological Sciences Journal-Journal des Sciences Hydrologiques, 55(6), 980-991.
DOI Scopus40 WoS37
2010 Kuczera, G., Kavetski, D., Renard, B., & Thyer, M. (2010). A limited memory acceleration strategy for MCMC sampling in hierarchical Bayesian calibration of hydrological models. Water Resources Research, 46(7), 1-6.
DOI Scopus20 WoS17
2010 Renard, B., Kavetski, D., Kuczera, G., Thyer, M., & Franks, S. (2010). Understanding predictive uncertainty in hydrologic modeling: The challenge of identifying input and structural errors. Water Resources Research, 46(5), 1-22.
DOI Scopus286 WoS258
2009 Thyer, M., Renard, B., Kavetski, D., Kuczera, G., Franks, S., & Srikanthan, S. (2009). Critical evaluation of parameter consistency and predictive uncertainty in hydrological modeling: A case study using Bayesian total error analysis. Water Resources Research, 45(12), 1-22.
DOI Scopus207 WoS174
2008 Thyer, M., Hardy, M., Coombes, P., & Patterson, C. (2008). The impact of end-use dynamics on urban water system design criteria. Australian Journal of Water Resources, 12(2), 161-170.
DOI Scopus2
2007 Frost, A., Thyer, M., Srikanthan, R., & Kuczera, G. (2007). A general Bayesian framework for calibrating and evaluating stochastic models of annual multi-site hydrological data. Journal of Hydrology, 340(3-4), 129-148.
DOI Scopus22 WoS17
2007 Rudiger, C., Hancock, G., Hemakumara, H., Jacobs, B., Kalma, J., Martinez, C., . . . Willgoose, G. (2007). Goulburn River experimental catchment data set. Water Resources Research, 43(10), 1-10.
DOI Scopus47 WoS44
2006 Thyer, M., Frost, A., & Kuczera, G. (2006). Parameter estimation and model identification for stochastic models of annual hydrological data: Is the observed record long enough?. Journal of Hydrology, 330(1-2), 313-328.
DOI Scopus19 WoS17
2006 Kuczera, G., Kavetski, D., Franks, S., & Thyer, M. (2006). Towards a Bayesian total error analysis of conceptual rainfall-runoff models: Characterising model error using storm-dependent parameters. Journal of Hydrology, 331(1-2), 161-177.
DOI Scopus196 WoS178
2004 Thyer, M., Beckers, J., Spittlehouse, D., Alila, Y., & Winkler, R. (2004). Diagnosing a distributed hydrologic model for two high-elevation forested catchments based on detailed stand- and basin-scale data. Water Resources Research, 40(1), W01103.
DOI Scopus38 WoS27
2003 Thyer, M., & Kuczera, G. (2003). A hidden Markov model for modelling long-term persistence in multi-site rainfall time series 1. Model calibration using a Bayesian approach. Journal of Hydrology, 275(1-2), 12-26.
DOI Scopus43 WoS32
2003 Thyer, M., & Kuczera, G. (2003). A hidden Markov model for modelling long-term persistence in multi-site rainfall time series. 2. Real data analysis. Journal of Hydrology, 275(1-2), 27-48.
DOI Scopus37 WoS33
2002 Thyer, M., Kuczera, G., & Wang, Q. (2002). Quantifying parameter uncertainty in stochastic models using the Box-Cox transformation. Journal of Hydrology, 265(1-4), 246-257.
DOI Scopus52 WoS45
2002 Frost, A., Jennings, S., Thyer, M., Lambert, M., & Kuczera, G. (2002). Incorporating long-term climate variability into a short-timescale rainfall model using a Hidden State Markov Model. Australian Journal of Water Resources, 6(1), 63-70.
DOI
2000 Thyer, M., & Kuczera, G. (2000). Modeling long-term persistence in hydroclimatic time series using a hidden state Markov model. Water Resources Research, 36(11), 3301-3310.
DOI Scopus65 WoS52
1999 Thyer, M., Kuczera, G., & Bates, B. (1999). Probabilistic optimization for conceptual rainfall-runoff models: a comparison of the shuffled complex evolution and simulated annealing algorithms. Water Resources Research, 35(3), 767-773.
DOI Scopus111 WoS95
Arbon, N. (n.d.). Insight from Smart Water Meters: Opportunities for Targeted Management Strategies.
DOI
Thyer, M., & Arbon, N. (n.d.). Insights from Smart Waters: Potential to Mitigate Impact of Heatwaves on Peak Demands.
DOI

Book Chapters

Year Citation
2016 Kuczera, G., Kavetski, D., Renard, B., & Thyer, M. A. (2016). Bayesian Methods. In V. Singh (Ed.), Handbook of Applied Hydrology, Second Edition (Second ed., pp. 10 pages). McGraw-Hill.
2010 Srikanthan, S., Kuczera, G., & Thyer, M. (2010). A simple method for incorporating parameter uncertainty in stochastic data generation. In Advances in Geosciences: Volume 17: Hydrological Science (HS) (pp. 53-64).
DOI

Conference Papers

Year Citation
2015 Lerat, J., Pickett-Heaps, C., Shin, D., Zhou, S., Feikema, P., Khan, U., . . . Kavetski, D. (2015). Dynamic streamflow forecasts within an uncertainty framework for 100 catchments in Australia. In The Art and Science of Water - 36th Hydrology and Water Resources Symposium, HWRS 2015 (pp. 1396-1403).
Scopus3
2015 Westra, S. P., Leonard, M., & Thyer, M. (2015). A principles-evaluate-discuss model for teaching journal and conference paper writing skills to postgraduate research students. In A. Oo,, A. Patel,, T. Hilditch,, & S. Chandran, (Eds.), Proceedings of the 26th Annual Conference of the Australasian Association for Engineering Education (pp. 1-10). Geelong, Victoria: School of Engineering, Deakin University.
2014 Bennett, B., Lambert, M., Thyer, M., Bates, B., & Westra, S. P. (2014). The impact of differences in rainfall seasonality on antecedent catchment wetness and flood risk. In Proceedings of the Hydrology and Water Resources Symposium (pp. 421-428). Perth, Western Australia: A.C.T. Engineers Australia.
2014 Li, J., Thyer, M., Lambert, M., Kuczera, G., & Metcalfe, A. (2014). Seasonal hybrid-CE method for estimating the annual flood distribution. In Hydrology and Water Resources Symposium 2014, HWRS 2014 - Conference Proceedings (pp. 1088-1095).
2014 McInerney, D., Thyer, M., Kavetski, D., & Kuczera, G. (2014). Evaluating different approaches for using the Box-Cox transformation to model heteroscedasticity in residual errors of hydrological models. In Hydrology and Water Resources Symposium 2014, HWRS 2014 - Conference Proceedings (pp. 937-944).
2012 Marchi, A., Simpson, A. R., Thyer, M. A., Sutanto, S., & Do, N. C. (2012). Optimisation of pump operations in water distribution systems taking into account the seasonality of the demand. In 14th Water Distribution Systems Analysis Conference Vol. 1 (pp. 602-612). Barton, A.C.T.: Engineers Australia.
2012 Li, J., Thyer, M., Lambert, M., Kuczera, G., & Metcalfe, A. (2012). A hybrid method for efficiently estimating the annual flood distribution under a changing climate. In Proceedings of the 34th Hydrology and Water Resources Symosium, HWRS 2012 (pp. 1467-1476). online: Engineers Australia.
2012 Sun, X., Renard, B., Lang, M., & Thyer, M. (2012). Modelling the non-stationary, asymmetric impact of ENSO on seasonal rainfall totals and daily rainfall extremes. In Proceedings of the 34th Hydrology and Water Resources Symosium, HWRS 2012 (pp. 1264-1272). online: Engineers Australia.
2012 Gibbs, M., Maier, H., Dandy, G., & Thyer, M. (2012). Is there potential to inform time varying conceptual rainfall runoff model parameters using groundwater data?. In Proceedings of the 34th Hydrology and Water Resources Symosium, HWRS 2012 (pp. 1024-1031). online: Engineers Australia.
2012 Bennett, B., Lambert, M., Thyer, M., Bates, B., & Leonard, M. (2012). Estimation of extreme spatial rainfall intensities. In Proceedings of the 34th Hydrology and Water Resources Symosium, HWRS 2012 (pp. 160-168). online: Engineers Australia.
2012 Westra, S., Thyer, M., Leonard, M., Kavetski, D., & Lambert, M. (2012). Diagnosing non-stationary behaviour in a hydrological model. In Proceedings of the 34th Hydrology & Water Resources Symposium, HWRS 2012 (pp. 256-264). Australia: Engineers Australia.
2011 Kavetski, D., Renard, B., Evin, G., Thyer, M., Newman, A., & Kuczera, G. (2011). Uncertainties in flood forecasting: A Bayesian total error perspective. In J. Sims, L. Merrin, R. Ackland, & N. Herron (Eds.), WIRADA (2012) Water Information Research and Development Alliance: Science Symposium Proceedings (pp. 93-98). Australia: Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO.
2011 Thyer, M., Micevski, T., Kuczera, G., & Coombes, P. (2011). A behavioural approach to stochastic end use modelling. In Ozwater 11: Australia's National Water Conference and Exhibition (pp. 1-8). Adelaide, Australia.
2011 Micevski, T., Lerat, J., Kavetski, D., Thyer, M., & Kuczera, G. (2011). Exploring the utility of multi-response calibration in river system modelling. In Proceedings of the 19th MODSIM (pp. 3889-3895). Australia: The Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and NZ.
Scopus3 WoS1
2011 Orr, D., Micevski, T., & Thyer, M. (2011). Household characteristics that influence household water use in the Hunter Region. In Proceedings of the 34th IAHR World Congress (pp. 1905-1912). Australia: Engineers Australia.
2011 Micevski, T., Thyer, M., & Kuczera, G. (2011). A behavioural approach for household outdoor water use modelling. In Proceedings of the 34th IAHR World Congress (pp. 1897-1904). Australia: Engineers Australia.
2011 Kavetski, D., Evin, G., Clark, M., Thyer, M., Kuczera, G., Renard, B., . . . Tuteja, N. (2011). Battling hydrological monsters: Insights into numerical approximations, data uncertainty and structural errors. In Proceedings of the 34th IAHR World Congress (pp. 1411-1418). Australia: Engineers Australia.
2011 Thyer, M., Renard, B., Kavetski, D., Kuczera, G., & Clark, M. (2011). Improving hydrological model predictions by incorporating rating curve uncertainty. In Proceedings of the 34th IAHR World Congress (pp. 1546-1553). Australia: Engineers Australia.
2009 Thyer, M., Renard, B., Kavetski, D., & Kuczera, G. (2009). Impact of runoff measurement error models on the quantification of predictive uncertainty in rainfall-runoff models. In Interfacing modelling and simulation with mathematical and computational sciences : 18th IMACS World Congress, MODSIM09, Cairns, Australia 13-17 July 2009 : proceedings (pp. 3414-3420). Christchurch: Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand.
Scopus2
2009 Srikanthan, R., Kuczera, G., & Thyer, M. (2009). 'Calibrate it twice': A simple resampling method for incorporating parameter uncertainty in stochastic data generation. In 32nd Hydrology and Water Resources Symposium 2009 (pp. 1028-1039). Newcastle: Engineers Australia.
2009 Henley, B., Thyer, M., Kuczera, G., & William, F. (2009). How long do phases of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) persist? : Utilising palaeoclimate data in stochastic hydrology. In 32nd Hydrology and Water Resources Symposium (pp. 254-265). Newcastle: Engineers Australia.
2009 Qin, J., Leonard, M., Kuczera, G., Thyer, M., Metcalfe, A., & Lambert, M. (2009). A high-resolution hierarchical space-time framework for single storm events and its application for short-term rainfall forecasting. In IAHS-AISH Publication Vol. 333 (pp. 330-340).
2009 Renard, B., Leblois, E., Kuczera, G., Kavetski, D., Thyer, M., & Franks, S. (2009). Characterizing errors in areal rainfall estimates: application to uncertainty quantification and decomposition in hydrologic modelling. In Proceedings of H2009, the 32nd Hydrology and Water Resources Symposium (pp. 505-516). Australia: Engineers Australia.
2009 Thyer, M., Duncan, H., Coombes, P., Kuczera, G., & Micevski, T. (2009). A probabilistic behavioural approach for the dynamic modelling of indoor household water use. In Proceedings of H2009, the 32nd Hydrology and Water Resources Symposium (pp. 1059-1069). Australia: Engineers Australia.
2009 Micevski, T., Thyer, M., & Coombes, P. (2009). Evaluation of a behavioural approach and a regression approach for the modelling of household-scale outdoor water use. In Proceedings of H2009, the 32nd Hydrology and Water Resources Symposium (pp. 1071-1080). Australia: Engineers Australia.
2008 Cui, L., Thyer, M., Coombes, P., & Kuczera, G. (2008). A stochastic model for identifying the long term dynamics of indoor household water uses. In Proceedings of Water Down Under 2008: incorporating 31st Hydrology and Water Resources Symposium and 4th International Conference on Water Resources and Environment Research (pp. 1-12). Modbury, SA: Engineers Australia.
2008 Henley, B., Thyer, M., Kuczera, G., & Franks, S. (2008). Evaluating drought risk dynamics: Comparison of a Climate-Informed Multi-time Scale Stochastic (CIMSS) framework to the AR(1) model. In M. Lambert, T. Daniell, & M. Leonard (Eds.), Proceedings of Water Down Under 2008 (pp. 2050-2061). Modbury, SA: Engineers Australia.
2008 Qin, J., Leonard, M., Kuczera, G., Thyer, M., Metcalfe, A., & Lambert, M. (2008). A high resolution spatio-temporal model for single storm events based on radar images. In M. Lambert (Ed.), Proceedings of Water Down Under 2008 (pp. 1582-1594). CD: Engineers Australia.
2008 Renard, B., Kuczera, G., Kavetski, D., Thyer, M., & Franks, S. (2008). Bayesian Total Error Analysis for hydrologic models: Quantifying uncertainties arising from input, output and structural errors. In 31st Hydrology and Water Resources Symposium (pp. 608-619). Modbury, SA: Engineers Australia.
2008 Zaman, A., Etchells, T., Malano, H., Davidson, B., Thyer, M., & Kuczera, G. (2008). Presenting a Next Generation Irrigation (NGenIrr) demand model. In International Conference on Water Resources and Environment (pp. 2094-2105). Modbury, SA: Engineers Australia.
2008 Thyer, M., Renard, B., Kavetski, D., Kuczera, G., & Srikanthan, S. (2008). Investigating the impact of predicitive uncertainity in rainfall-runoff modelling on storage reliability estimates using Bayesian total error analysis. In R. W. Babcock, & R. Walton (Eds.), Proceedings of the World Environmental and Water Resources Congress Vol. 316 (pp. 0 pages). USA: American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE).
DOI
2008 Kavetski, D., Thyer, M., Renard, B., Kuczera, G., Franks, S., & Srikanthan, S. (2008). Scrutinizing parameter consistency and predictive uncertainty in rainfall-runoff models using Bayesian total error analysis. In R. W. Babcock, & R. Walton (Eds.), Proceedings of the World Environmental and Water Resources Congress 2008 Vol. 316 (pp. 0 pages). USA: American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE).
DOI Scopus1
2007 Thyer, M., Renard, B., Kavetski, D., Kuczera, G., & Srikanthan, R. (2007). Bayesian total error analysis for hydrological models: preliminary evaluation using multi-site catchment rainfall data. In International Congress on Modelling and Simulation 2007 (pp. 2459-2465). Christchurch: Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand.
Scopus3 WoS1
2007 Kuczera, G., Kavetski, D., Renard, B., & Thyer, M. (2007). Bayesian total error analysis for hydrologic models: Markov chain Monte Carlo methods to evaluate the posterior distribution. In MODSIM 2007 International Congress on Modelling and Simulation (pp. 2466-2472). Christchurch: Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand.
Scopus5 WoS1
2007 Renard, B., Thyer, M., Kuczera, G., & Kavetski, D. (2007). Bayesian total error analysis for hydrologic models: sensitivity to error models. In MODSIM 2007 International Congress on Modelling and Simulation (pp. 2473-2489). Christchurch: Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand,.
Scopus3 WoS1
2007 Henley, B., Thyer, M., & Kuczera, G. (2007). Seasonal stochastic rainfall modelling using climate indices: A Bayesian Hierarchical Model. In L. Oxley, & D. Kulasiri (Eds.), MODSIM 2007 International Congress on Modelling and Simulation (pp. 1575-1581). Christchurch: Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand.
Scopus2
2007 Cui, L., Thyer, M., Coombes, P., & Kuczera, G. (2007). A hidden state Markov Model for identifying the long term dynamics of indoor household water uses. In Rainwater and Urban Design Conference 2007 (pp. 1-8). Sydney, NSW: Conference Organising Committee.
2007 Thyer, M. (2007). The national airborne field experiment data sets. In MODSIM07 : International Congress on Modelling and Simulation (pp. 2625-2631). Christchurch: International Congress on Modelling and Simulation.
Scopus1
2007 Kavetski, D., Kuczera, G., Thyer, M., & Renard, B. (2007). Multistart Newton-type optimisation methods for the calibration of conceptual hydrological models. In MODSIM 2007 International Congress on Modelling and Simulation (pp. 2513-2519). Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand: Christchurch.
Scopus4 WoS2
2006 Qin, J., Leonard, M., Kuczera, G., Thyer, M., Lambert, M., & Metcalfe, A. (2006). Statistical characteristics of rainstorms derived from weather radar images. In Geoff Brayford (Ed.), Proceedings of the 30th Hydrology and Water Resources Symposium (pp. CDROM1-CDROM6). CDROM: Conference Design Pty Ltd.
2006 Henley, B., Thyer, M., Kuczera, G., & Franks, S. (2006). Incorporating long-term climate information into stochastic models of annual hydrological data: A Bayesian hierarchical approach. In 30th Hydrology & Water Resources Symposium (pp. 327-332). Conference Design: Sandy Bay, Tasmania.
2006 Thyer, M., Frost, A., Kuczera, G., & Srikanthan, R. (2006). Stochastic modelling of (not-so) long-term hydrological data: Current status and future research. In 30th Hydrology and Water Resources Symposium (pp. Online). Sandy Bay, Tasmania: Conference Design.
2005 Frost, A., & Thyer, M. (2005). Stochastic generation of multi-site hydrological data at annual timescales. In 29th Hydrology and Water Resources Symposium (pp. 1-9). Canberra ACT: Engineers Australia.
2005 Kuczera, G., Kavetski, D., Franks, S., & Thyer, M. (2005). Characterizing model error in conceptual rainfall-runoff models using storm-dependent parameters. In MODSIM 2005 International Congress on Modelling and Simulation (pp. 2925-2931). Canberra, Australia: Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand.
Scopus2 WoS1
2005 Whiting, J., Thyer, M., Lambert, M., & Metcalfe, A. (2005). Simulating catchment-scale monthly rainfall with classes of hidden Markov models. In R. Vertessy, & R. Knee (Eds.), Proceedings of the 29th Hydrology and Water Resources Symposium (pp. 1-8). Australia: Engineers Australia.
2000 Thyer, M., & Kuczera, G. (2000). Modelling long-term rainfall persistence at multiple sites. In L. Bentley, J. Sykes, C. Brebbia, W. Gray, & G. Pinder (Eds.), Computational methods in water resources - Volume 2 - Computational methods,surface water systems and hydrology (pp. 1153-1160). UNIV CALGARY, FAC SCI, CALGARY, CANADA: A A BALKEMA PUBLISHERS.
2000 Frost, A., Jennings, S., Thyer, M., Lambert, M., & Kuczera, G. (2000). Droughts, floods and everything else in between. In B. B. P. Coordinator (Ed.), Proceedings of Hydro 2000 3rd International Hydrology and Water Resources Symposium of The Institution of Engineers, Australia (pp. 168-173). ACT, Australia: The Institution of Engineers, Australia.

Conference Items

Year Citation
2017 Bennett, B. S., Thyer, M., Leonard, M., Lambert, M., Bates, B., Evin, G., . . . Hingray, B. (2017). A comprehensive and systematic evaluation framework for evaluating spatio-temporal rainfall models. Poster session presented at the meeting of 22nd International Congress on Modelling and Simulation. Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand. Hobart, Tasmania, Australia.
2016 Bennett, B. S., Thyer, M., Leonard, M., Lambert, M., & Bates, B. (2016). Parsimonious simulation of daily rainfall fields. Poster session presented at the meeting of DEWNR-NRM Science Conference. University of Adelaide, SA, Australia.
2016 Bennett, B. S., Thyer, M., Leonard, M., & Lambert, M. (2016). Continuous simulation of spatial daily rainfall fields. Poster session presented at the meeting of EGU General Assembly Conference Abstracts. Vienna, Austria.
2015 Bennett, B. S., Leonard, M., Thyer, M., & Lambert, M. (2015). Simulation of daily rainfall across a range of space and time scales. Poster session presented at the meeting of 21st International Congress on Modelling and Simulation. Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand. Gold Coast, Queensland, Australia.
2013 Bennett, B. S., Lambert, M., Thyer, M., Bates, B., & Westra, S. (2013). Techniques for Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Antecedent Catchment Wetness and Flooding. Poster session presented at the meeting of 20th International Congress on Modelling and Simulation. Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand. Adelaide, South Australia.
2012 Thyer, M. A., Lambert, M., Li, J., Kuczera, G., & Metcalfe, A. (2012). A new approach for annual flood frequency estimation: Hybrid Causative Event Method. Poster session presented at the meeting of 34th Hydrology and Water Resources Symposium. Sydney, Australia.
DOI
2008 Henley, B., Thyer, M., Kuczera, G., & Franks, S. (2008). Short-term drought risk dynamics: The impact of multi-decadal climate variability and water supply system properties. Poster session presented at the meeting of World Environmental and Water Resources Congress 2008: Ahupua'a - Proceedings of the World Environmental and Water Resources Congress 2008.
DOI
li, J., Lambert, M., Kuczera, G., & Metcalfe, A. (n.d.). An efficient hybrid causative event-based approach for estimating flood frequency: Conference Poster. Poster session presented at the meeting of Unknown Conference.
DOI

Report for External Bodies

Year Citation
2014 Westra, S. P., Thyer, M., Leonard, M., Kavetski, D., & Lambert, M. (2014). Impacts of climate change on surface water in the Onkaparinga catchment - Final report volume 1: hydrological model development and sources of uncertainty (14/22). Goyder Institute for Water Research.
2014 Westra, S. P., Thyer, M., Leonard, M., & Lambert, M. (2014). Impacts of climate change on surface water in the Onkaparinga catchment - Final report volume 2: hydrological evaluation of the CMIP3 and CMIP5 GCMs and the Non-homogenous Hidden Markov Model (NHMM) (14/23). Goyder Institute for Water Research.
2014 Westra, S. P., Thyer, M., Leonard, M., & Lambert, M. (2014). Impacts of climate change on surface water in the Onkaparinga catchment - Final report volume 3: impact of climate change on runoff in the Onkaparinga catchment (14/27). Goyder Institute for Water Research.
2014 Arbon, N., Thyer, M. A., Darla Hatton McDonald., Beverley, K., & Lambert, M. (2014). Understanding and predicting household water use for Adelaide (Technical Report Series No. 14/15). Goyder Institute for Water Research.
2011 Tuteja, N. K., Shin, D., Laugesen, R., Khan, U., Shao, Q., Wang, E., . . . Le, B. (2011). Experimental evaluation of the dynamic seasonal streamflow forecasting approach. Melbourne, Victoria: Commonwealth of Australia (Bureau of Meteorology).
2011 Leonard, M., Thyer, M., Lambert, M., Maier, H., & Dandy, G. (2011). Task 4 Milestone 1 Report, Application Test Bed, Onkaparinga Catchment Case Study: Surface Water Hydrological Modelling.

Theses

Year Citation
2016 Bennett, B. S. (2016). Stochastic Spatial Rainfall Modelling for Hydrological Design: Development of a Parsimonious Simulation Approach and Virtual Hydrological Evaluation Framework. (PhD Thesis, University of Adelaide).

Internet Publications

Year Citation
2015 Thyer, M. A., & Westra, S. (2015). Adelaide is facing a dry future – it needs to start planning now. The Conversation.

Datasets

Year Citation
2015 Thyer, M. A., Li, J. I. N. G., Lambert, M., Kuczera, G., & Metcalfe, A. (2015). Virtual hydrological time series for flood frequency analysis.
DOI
McInerney, D., Thyer, M., Kavetski, D., Githui, F., Thayalakumaran, T., Liu, M., & Kuczera, G. (n.d.). The importance of Spatiotemporal Variability in irrigation inputs for hydrological modelling of irrigated catchments - Datasets.
DOI

Software

Year Citation
2017 McInerney, D., Bennett, B. S., Thyer, M., & Kavetski, D. (2017). Interactive Probabilistic Predictions [Computer Software]. http://www.probabilisticpredictions.org/.
DOI
2016 Leonard, M., Bennett, B., Thyer, M., Marchi, A., Guo, D., Visintin, P., & Wright, D. (2016). Algorithmik Apps, http://www.algorithmik.org.au/ [Computer Software].
Leonard, M., Bennett, B., Thyer, M., Marchi, A., Visintin, P., Wright, D., & Guo, D. (n.d.). Algorithmik Apps [Computer Software].

Presentations

Year Citation
Thyer, M., McInerney, D., Kavetski, D., Kuczera, G., & Lerat, J. (n.d.). Improving probabilistic prediction of daily streamflow.
DOI
Kavetski, D. (n.d.). Advances in improving streamflow predictions, with applications in forecasting.
DOI
Mcinerney, D., Kavetski, D., & Kuzera, G. (n.d.). Practical guidance on representing uncertainty in hydrological predictions.
DOI
Bennett, B., Leonard, M., Lambert, M., & Bates, B. (n.d.). Parsimonious Simulation of Daily Rainfall Fields.
DOI
Arbon, N., McDonald, D. H., & Lambert, M. (n.d.). Identifying Key Drivers of Household Water Use in South Australia: Practical Implications.
DOI

Research Funding

Year Project Co-Investigators
Funding Body
Amount
2015-2017 A Robust Integrated Streamflow Forecasting Framework for Australian Water Information Agencies Kavetski, Thyer, Kuczera, Tuteja, Shin, Seed, Lerat, Tibaldi, Clark, Wood

ARC LinkageBureau of MeteorologySEQ WaterNCAR(US) 

$270k
2014 Evaluation of Postprocessing Techniques for Rainfall and Streamflow Forecasts Thyer, Kavetski, Kuczera, McInerney Bureau of Meteorology $125k
2012-2014 Optimal Water Resource Mix for Metropolitan Adelaide Thyer, Lambert, Dandy, Maier

Goyder Institute for Water ResearchSA Water

$384k
2011-2014 Development of an agreed set of climate projects for South Australia Thyer, Lambert, Green Goyder Institute for Water Research $505k
2010-2012 Inferring hydrologic model structure using Bayesian Total Error Analysis Kavetski, Kuczera, Thyer, Franks ARC Discovery $240k
2010-2011 UoA eWater Project Dandy, Maier, Thyer eWater CRC $254k
2010-2013 An integrated modelling approach for the efficient management of irrigated landscapes Thyer, Kavetski, Kuczera, Franks, Selle, Githui, Thayalakumaran ARC LinkageDEPI(Vic) $185k
2010-2012 Adapting Bayesian Total Error Analysis to River Systems Modelling Kuczera, Thyer, Kavetski CSIRO - Land and Water $200k
2010-2011 Supply of Bayesian Total Error Analysis Kuczera, Thyer, Kavetski Bureau of Meteorology $185k
2010-2012 A new flood design methodology for a variable and changing climate Lambert, Kuczera, Thyer, Metcalfe ARC Discovery $325k
2010-2011 Improving flood forecasting via robust handling of data and model uncertainties in hydrologic predictions Thyer, Kavetski, Kuczera, Franks, Renard, Andreassian, Perrin, Lang, Sauquet International Science Linkages $20k
2008-2010 Urban Water Systems Project Kuczera, Thyer, Rodriguez, Kavetski eWater CRC $1,124k
2007-2009 A stochastic space-time model of rainfall fields in large heterogeneous regions Lambert, Metcalfe, Kuczera, Thyer ARC Discovery $345k
2007-2009 Efficient and Robust Prediction at Ungauged Catchments Kuczera, Thyer, Franks ARC Discovery $180k
2006-2007 Innovative WSUD intervention strategies Coombes, Thyer, Kuczera, Rodriguez eWater CRC $321k
2006-2007 Total error framework for model calibration Kuczera, Thyer, Coombes eWater CRC $562k
2006-2009 A Bayesian Hierarchical Approach for Simulating Multi-time scale Hydrological Variability for Water Resources Planning Thyer, Kuczera, Franks, Lambert, Metcalfe and Berghout. ARC LinkageHunter Water Corporation $117k
                         Total $5,336k

Current Higher Degree by Research Supervision (University of Adelaide)

Date Role Research Topic Program Degree Type Student Load Student Name
2018 Principal Supervisor Innovative Approaches for Identifying Household Water End-Uses Master of Philosophy Master Full Time Miss Lucy Hannah Preiss
2018 Principal Supervisor Influence of Catchment-Scale Characteristics on Residual Model Selection and Parameters Doctor of Philosophy Doctorate Full Time Mr Jason Hunter

Past Higher Degree by Research Supervision (University of Adelaide)

Date Role Research Topic Program Degree Type Student Load Student Name
2013 - 2017 Principal Supervisor Influence Diagnostics in Hydrological Modeling Doctor of Philosophy Doctorate Full Time David Peter Wright
2011 - 2016 Co-Supervisor Stochastic Spatial Rainfall Modelling for Hydrological Design: Development of a Parsimonious Simulation Approach and Virtual Hydrological Evaluation Framework Doctor of Philosophy Doctorate Full Time Dr Bree Sarah Bennett

Memberships

Date Role Membership Country
2007 - ongoing Member International Association of Hydrological Sciences United Kingdom
2007 - ongoing Member Engineers Australia Australia
1999 - ongoing Member American Geophysical Union United States

Industry Partnerships

Date Engagement Type Partner Name
2010 - ongoing Consultant Bureau of Meterology
Position
Associate Professor
Phone
83130770
Fax
8313 4359
Campus
North Terrace
Building
Engineering North, floor 1
Room Number
1 07a
Org Unit
School of Civil, Environmental and Mining Engineering

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