Kesten Green

Dr Kesten Green

Senior Lecturer

School of Accounting and Finance

College of Business and Law

Eligible to supervise Masters and PhD (as Co-Supervisor) - email supervisor to discuss availability.

Available For Media Comment.


A Senior Marketing Scientist with the Ehrenberg-Bass Institute, Kesten is a leading researcher on forecasting methods and applications. He has developed new and better forecasting methods for business and public policy, and his research is widely cited. He has proposed and tested a unifying theory of forecasting, the Golden Rule of Forecasting, and is responsible for a review of evidence confirming the superiority of sophisticatedly simple forecasting methods over complex ones.
Kesten's book The Scientific Method: A Guide to Finding Useful Knowledge (Cambridge 2022) provides checklists to help researchers and stakeholders improve the practice of science. It includes a Foreword by Nobel laureate Vernon L. Smith.
Kesten has testified to Australian Senate Economics References Committee, and provided submissions to the New Zealand Parliament and to the U.S. Congress. He has been consulted by government agencies in New Zealand and the U.S., and his research has been extensively covered in the popular media, including the  Australian Financial Review, the London Financial Times and The Wall Street Journal.
Before joining the University of South Australia, he was a founder and director of four businesses including an economic forecasting and consulting firm and a market research firm. Kesten's CV is available from kestencgreen.com.

evidence-based forecasting methods; survey research methods; forecasting decisions; the effects of role, interaction, and conflict on decision making; forecasting for negotiations and strategy in business and warfare; judgmental forecasting methods; the use of analogies in forecasting; forecasting for public policy

Year Citation
2025 Green, K., & Soon, W. (2025). Are climate model forecasts useful for policy making? Effect of variable choice on reliability and predictive validity. Science of Climate Change, 5.1, 1-27.
DOI
2024 Green, K. (2024). J. Scott Armstrong (1937 - 2023): Iconoclast and champion of science for practical purposes. Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, (72), 5-7.
2019 Graefe, A., Green, K. C., & Armstrong, J. S. (2019). Accuracy gains from conservative forecasting: tests using variations of 19 econometric models to predict 154 elections in 10 countries. PLoS ONE, 14(1), 1-14.
DOI
2018 Armstrong, J. S., & Green, K. C. (2018). Forecasting methods and principles: evidence-based checklists. Journal of global scholars of marketing science, 28(2), 103-159.
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2018 Dawes, J., Kennedy, R., Green, K., & Sharp, B. (2018). Forecasting advertising and media effects on sales: econometrics and alternatives. International journal of market research, 60(6), 611-620.
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2016 Green, K. C., Armstrong, J. S., Du, R., & Graefe, A. (2016). Persuasion principles index: ready for pretesting advertisements. European journal of marketing, 50(1/2), 317-326.
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2016 Armstrong, J. S., Du, R., Green, K. C., & Graefe, A. (2016). Predictive validity of evidence-based persuasion principles. European journal of marketing, 50(1/2), 276-293.
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2015 Green, K. C., & Armstrong, J. S. (2015). Simple versus complex forecasting: the evidence. Journal of business research, 68(8), 1678-1685.
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2015 Green, K. C., Armstrong, J. S., & Graefe, A. (2015). Golden rule of forecasting rearticulated: forecast unto others as you would have them forecast unto you. Journal of business research, 68(8), 1768-1771.
DOI Scopus2
2015 Armstrong, J. S., Green, K. C., & Graefe, A. (2015). Golden rule of forecasting: be conservative. Journal of business research, 68(8), 1717-1731.
DOI Scopus128
2013 Armstrong, J. S., & Green, K. C. (2013). Effects of corporate social responsibility and irresponsibility policies. Journal of business research, 66(10), 1922-1927.
DOI
2012 Armstrong, J. S., & Green, K. C. (2012). Should we put a price on free speech?. Journal of public policy & marketing, 31(2), 325.
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2012 Green, K. C., & Armstrong, J. S. (2012). Have the courts protected free speech for business people?. Journal of public policy & marketing, 31(2), 1-5.
2012 Green, K. C., & Armstrong, J. S. (2012). Evidence on the effects of mandatory disclaimers in advertising. Journal of public policy & marketing, 31(2), 293-304.
DOI
2011 Green, K. C., & Armstrong, J. S. (2011). Role thinking: standing in other people's shoes to forecast decisions in conflicts. International journal of forecasting, 27(1), 69-80.
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2011 Armstrong, J. S., Green, K. C., & Soon, W. (2011). Research on forecasting for the manmade global warming alarm. Energy and environment, 22(8), 1091-1104.
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2010 Armstrong, J. S., Green, K. C., Jones, R. J., & Wright, M. J. (2010). Predicting elections from politicians' faces. International journal of public opinion research, 22(4), 511-522.
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2009 Green, K. C., Armstrong, J. S., & Soon, W. (2009). Validity of climate change forecasting for public policy decision making. International journal of forecasting, 25(4), 826-832.
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2009 Green, K. C., & Tashman, L. (2009). Percentage Error: What Denominator?. Foresight: the international journal of applied forecasting, (12), 36-40.
2008 Green, K. C., & Tashman, L. (2008). Should we define forecast error as e= F-A or e=A-F?. Foresight: the international journal of applied forecasting, (10), 38-40.
2008 Armstrong, J. S., Green, K. C., & Soon, W. (2008). Polar bear population forecasts: a public-policy forecasting audit. Interfaces, 38(5), 382-405.
DOI
2008 Armstrong, J. S., Green, K. C., & Soon, W. (2008). What is the appropriate public-policy response to uncertainty?. Interfaces, 38(5), 404-405.
2007 Green, K. C., & Armstrong, J. S. (2007). Global Warming: Forecasts by Scientists Versus Scientific Forecasts. Energy & Environment, 18(7), 997-1021.
DOI
2007 Green, K. C., Armstrong, J. S., & Graefe, A. (2007). Methods to Elicit forecasts from Goups: Delphi and Predciction Markets Compared. Foresight: the international journal of applied forecasting.
2007 Armstrong, J. S., & Green, K. C. (2007). Competitor-Oriented Objectives: The Myth of Market Share. International Journal of Business.
2007 Green, K. C., & Armstrong, J. S. (2007). The Ombudsman : value of expertise for forecasting decisions in conflicts. Interfaces, 37(3), 287-299.
DOI
2007 Green, K. C., & Armstrong, J. S. (2007). Structured analogies for forecasting. International journal of forecasting, 23(3), 365-376.
DOI

Courses I teach

  • BUSS 5397 Research for Business Decision Making (2025)
  • INFS 5129 Enterprise Analytics for Business Professionals (2025)
  • BUSS 5397 Research for Business Decision Making (2024)
  • INFS 5129 Enterprise Analytics for Business Professionals (2024)