School of Mathematical Sciences
Faculty of Sciences, Engineering and Technology
Eligible to supervise Masters and PhD - email supervisor to discuss availability.
I am a Professor of Applied Mathematics in the School of Mathematical Sciences at the University of Adelaide.
My research is focused on developing novel mathematical and statistical methods, and new probabilistic models, that assist in understanding the factors that are most important to complex systems in epidemiology and conservation biology. I use these techniques to assist in determining effective public health, and conservation/biosecurity, policy.
Research Interests: Data Science; Mathematical modelling in Ecology, Epidemiology and Evolution; Stochastic modelling; Bayesian computational statistics; Operations Research; Outbreak Analytics.
SA COVID-Ready modelling
I am the lead modeller for the SA Government's COVID-Ready modelling. With Dr Thomas Prowse we have undertaken modelling to support decision making regarding COVID-19 in South Australia.
Delta and Opening Borders
We first undertook modelling concerning the Delta variant and scenario planning to inform the policy settings that should be in place when opening borders following reaching 80% (16+) vaccination coverage, and for 90% (12+) vaccination coverage. The 80% report is available here.
A video explaining this work from the SA Chief Public Health Officer Prof. Nicola Spurrier is below.
Omicron and Rapid Response
During the third week post-opening of borders it became evident that cases were not tracking as expected for Delta, and the possibility of the emergence of newly-declared variant of concern, Omicron, was investigated. This led to modelling to inform rapid response.
Details of this can be found here, including another video explaining this work by Prof. Nicola Spurrier
Lifting of Activity Restrictions
Most recently, I have been modelling the impact of lifting of activity restrictions, vaccination numbers, and other changes to Transmission Potential on cases and hospitalisations in South Australia.
Please find further released details here.
Throughout, this work has been reported to the SA COVID Transition Committee, and the SA COVID-Ready Committee, and has involved a collaboration with SAHMRI and SA Health. The work has supported decision making around Activity Restrictions, School opening, and Health System Capacity provisioning (e.g., see here).
Date Position Institution name 2018 - ongoing Professor of Applied Mathematics University of Adelaide 2015 - 2017 Associate Professor in Applied Mathematics University of Adelaide 2014 - 2018 ARC Future Fellow University of Adelaide 2013 - 2014 Senior Lecturer in Applied Mathematics University of Adelaide 2010 - 2012 Lecturer in Applied Mathematics University of Adelaide 2007 - 2010 Zukerman Junior Research Fellow King's College, University of Cambridge 2006 - 2007 Post-doctoral Research Fellow University of Warwick
Awards and Achievements
Date Institution name Country Title University of Queensland Australia PhD in Mathematics University of Queensland Australia GCEd (Higher Education) University of Queensland Australia BSc (Hons I) (Mathematics) University of Queensland Australia BSc (Mathematics & Statistics) University of Queensland Australia BA (Economics)
Year Citation 2019 Brock, A., Ross, J. V., Esterman, A., & Parikh, S. (2019). THE ROLE OF DRUG QUALITY IN THE EMERGENCE AND TRANSMISSION OF ANTIMALARIAL RESISTANCE. Poster session presented at the meeting of AMERICAN JOURNAL OF TROPICAL MEDICINE AND HYGIENE. National Harbor, MD: AMER SOC TROP MED & HYGIENE.
Report for External Bodies
Year Citation 2017 Heinrich, S., Wittmann, T. A., Ross, J. V., Shepherd, C., Challender, D. W. S., & Cassey, P. (2017). The Global Trafficking of Pangolins: A comprehensive summary of seizures and trafficking routes from 2010 –2015. Petaling Jaya, Selangor, Malaysia.: TRAFFIC.
Year Citation 2016 McVernon, J., Ross, J. V., Glass, K., Mitchell, L., Geard, N., & Moss, R. (2016). Computing helps the study of infections on a global and local scale.
Year Citation Heinrich, S., Ross, J., & Cassey, P. (n.d.). Ebay_data_AP.csv.
Year Citation Cope, R., Ross, J., Chilver, M., Stocks, N., & Mitchell, L. (n.d.). Data associated with Cope et al. 2018 'Characterising seasonal influenza epidemiology using primary care surveillance data'.
2021 SA-DTF "SA Genetic Biocontrol Technology Hub" (Genetic Biocontrol Technology for Invasive Pests) (with Prof. Paul Thomas, A/Prof. Phill Cassey, Dr Thomas Prowse, Dr Vicki Thomson, Prof. Rachel Ankeny) ($1,000,000 over 4 years)
2020 National Health and Medical Research Council Partnership Project "Piloting, Implementing and Evaluating First Few Hundred Protocols in the Australian Context" (CIA Prof Jodie McVernon, CIB Prof. Ross Andrews, CIC Prof. Joshua Ross, CID Dr Sebastian Duchene, CIE Prof. Kanta Subbarao, CIF Dr James Fielding, CIG Dr Emma Field, CIH Dr Andrew Black, CII Mr Adrian Marcato, CIJ Ms Kristy Crooks) ($2,092,853 over 3 years)
2019 National Health and Medical Research Council Centre of Research Excellence for Supporting Participatory Evidence generation to Control Transmissible diseases in our Region Using Modelling (CIA Prof. Jodie McVernon, CIB Prof. Barbara McPake, CIC Dr Iadine Chades, CID Prof. Emma McBryde, CIE Prof. Peter Annear, CIF Prof. Ross Andrews, CIG Prof. James McCaw, CIH Prof. Joshua Ross, CII Dr Nic Geard, CIJ Dr Natalie Carvalho) ($2,499,914 over 5 years)
2019 Australian Research Council Linkage Project "Development of genetic technology for rodent population suppression" (with Prof. Paul Thomas, A/Prof. Phillip Cassey and Dr Thomas Prowse) ($1,092,000 over 3 years)
2018 Centre for Invasive Species Solutions Project "Understanding and intervening in illegal trade in non-native species" (with A/Prof. Phill Cassey, Dr Lewis Mitchell, A/Prof. Jeremy Austin, Dr Jonathan Tyler, Dr Peter Caley, Dr David Ramsey, Ms Lindell Andrews, Dr Rebecca Johnson) ($766,000 over 4 years)
2015 Data to Decisions CRC Beat The News Disease Prediction Project (with Dr Lewis Mitchell and Prof. Nigel Bean) ($637,606 over 3 years)
2014 National Health and Medical Research Council Centre of Research Excellence for Policy Relevant Infectious Disease Simulation and Mathematical Modelling (CIA A/Prof. Jodie McVernon, CIB Prof. Archie Clements, CIC Dr Joshua Ross, CID Dr James McCaw, CIE Dr James Wood, CIF A/Prof. Emma McBryde, CIG Dr Kathryn Glass, CIH Dr Nicholas Geard) ($2,495,032 over 5 years)
2014 Australian Research Council Discovery Project "Transport risk pathways for emerging invasive species" (with A/Prof. Phillip Cassey and A/Prof. John Drake) ($343,000 over 3 years)
2013 Australian Research Council Future Fellowship "Developing mathematical models and statistical methods to understand the dynamics of infectious diseases: stochasticity, structure and inference" ($619,381 over 4 years)
2013 Royal Society International Exchanges Scheme Grant "The impact of social mixing on the spread and control of diseases" (with Prof. Matt Keeling) (£11,900 over 2 years)
2011 Australian Research Council Discovery Project "New methods for integrating population structure and stochasticity into models of disease dynamics" ($248,000 over 3 years)
2011 Australian Research Council Discovery Project "New methods for improving active adaptive management in biological systems" (with Prof. Nigel Bean, Prof. Phil Pollett and Prof. Peter Taylor) ($255,000 over 3 years)
Significant Contract Research and Consultancies
2021 SA Health "COVID-Ready modelling" (ongoing)
2021 NSW Department of Industry "Genetic Biocontrol Technology for Pest Mammal Control" (with A/Prof. Phill Cassey, Dr Thomas Prowse, Prof. Paul Thomas) ($1,295,170 over 3 years)
2020 Commonwealth Government "COVID-19 modelling" (partly with Dr Andrew Black)(ongoing)
2017 DST + US Defence "BDSS" (with Dr Andrew Black) (ongoing)
Current Higher Degree by Research Supervision (University of Adelaide)
Date Role Research Topic Program Degree Type Student Load Student Name 2021 Principal Supervisor Use of machine learning methods in model selection and optimal design Master of Philosophy Master Part Time Mr Joshua Carlo Mercurio 2020 Principal Supervisor Optimising Battery Replacement in a Fleet of Scooters Master of Philosophy Master Part Time Mr Joshua Thomas Price 2020 Principal Supervisor Mathematics for Last-Mile Transportation Master of Philosophy Master Full Time Mr Scott James Carnie-Bronca 2018 Co-Supervisor Techniques for Cyber Vulnerability Exploit Prediction Doctor of Philosophy Doctorate Full Time Mr Andrew Robert Feutrill 2016 Co-Supervisor Wildlife Trafficking and Crime in Southeast Asia Doctor of Philosophy Doctorate Part Time Miss Freyja Watters
Past Higher Degree by Research Supervision (University of Adelaide)
Date Role Research Topic Program Degree Type Student Load Student Name 2019 - 2022 Principal Supervisor Bayesian Optimal Experimental Design for Vaccine Trials Master of Philosophy Master Full Time Mr Joshua Nicholas Bean 2019 - 2021 Co-Supervisor Inference on historical Ebola outbreaks using hierarchical models: a particle filtering approach Master of Philosophy Master Full Time Mr Dylan John Morris 2018 - 2021 Co-Supervisor Mathematical Modelling of the Early Stages of Multicellular Evolution Doctor of Philosophy Doctorate Full Time Mr Matthew Cody Nitschke 2017 - 2019 Principal Supervisor Optimal Wildlife Smuggling Interdiction Master of Philosophy Master Full Time Miss Rachel Su Yi McLean 2017 - 2019 Principal Supervisor Using Approximate Bayesian Computation and Machine Learning Model Selection Techniques to Understand the Impact of Climate on Seasonal Influenza-like Illness in Australia Master of Philosophy Master Full Time Miss Jessica Penfold 2017 - 2021 Principal Supervisor Mathematical and Statistical Models of Human Behaviour in Digital Epidemiology Doctor of Philosophy Doctorate Full Time Mr Dennis Liu 2016 - 2020 Principal Supervisor Bayesian Inference and Model Selection for Partially-Observed, Continuous-Time, Stochastic Epidemic Models Doctor of Philosophy Doctorate Full Time Mr James Nicholas Walker 2016 - 2020 Co-Supervisor The Global Trade in Pangolin Species from Asia and Africa Doctor of Philosophy Doctorate Full Time Ms Sarah Heinrich 2015 - 2017 Principal Supervisor Epidemiological Characterisation of 1918 Pandemic Influenza Aboard Ships Master of Philosophy Master Full Time Mr Lachlan David Bubb 2015 - 2017 Principal Supervisor Household Models for Endemic Diseases Master of Philosophy Master Full Time Mr Jonathon James Pantelis 2015 - 2018 Co-Supervisor Epidemic fade-out in the Markovian SIR-with-demography infection model Doctor of Philosophy Doctorate Part Time Mr Peter Geoffrey Ballard 2014 - 2016 Principal Supervisor Inference Methods for First Few Hundred Studies Master of Philosophy Master Full Time Mr James Nicholas Walker 2014 - 2016 Co-Supervisor Inference for Epidemics on Networks Master of Philosophy Master Full Time Mr Brock Anthony Hermans 2014 - 2018 Co-Supervisor Hybrid methodology for Markovian epidemic models Doctor of Philosophy Doctorate Full Time Nicolas Peter Rebuli 2014 - 2017 Co-Supervisor Optimal Allocation of Vaccines in Metapopulations Doctor of Philosophy Doctorate Full Time Mingmei Teo 2013 - 2017 Co-Supervisor Alien Vertebrate Risk Assessment and Invasion Pathway Modelling Doctor of Philosophy Doctorate Full Time Mr Pablo Garcia Diaz 2013 - 2015 Co-Supervisor Approximations of Stochastic Household Models for Comparing Antiviral Allocation Schemes Master of Philosophy Master Full Time Michael John Lydeamore 2012 - 2016 Co-Supervisor On the Derivation and Application of Closure Approximations of Cellular Automata Models Doctor of Philosophy Doctorate Part Time Mr Kale James Davies 2012 - 2015 Co-Supervisor On the Advancement of Optimal Experimental Design with Applications to Infectious Diseases Doctor of Philosophy Doctorate Full Time David James Price 2012 - 2013 Co-Supervisor Interval Markov chains: Performance measures and sensitivity analysis Master of Philosophy Master Full Time Mingmei Teo
Date Role Committee Institution Country 2016 - ongoing Representative Executive Committee of ANZIAM ANZIAM 2015 - ongoing Member Scientific Committee of MATRIX@Melbourne
Date Role Editorial Board Name Institution Country 2020 - 2023 Associate Editor Royal Society Open Science Royal Society United Kingdom 2015 - ongoing Board Member PLOS Currents Outbreaks
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