Dmitri Kavetski

Professor Dmitri Kavetski

Professor

School of Architecture and Civil Engineering

Faculty of Sciences, Engineering and Technology

Eligible to supervise Masters and PhD - email supervisor to discuss availability.

One of the main contributions of Dmitri's research work has been the development of Bayesian Total Error Analysis (BATEA) - a comprehensive framework for parameter estimation and probabilistic prediction accounting for data and model uncertainties. BATEA has been used in research and practice, including in the operational seasonal forecasting system of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. Additional applications have taken place in river system modelling, irrigation modelling and other areas of environmental engineering.

Dmitri's broader interests include mathematical modelling of surface and subsurface hydrological systems, development of numerically robust rainfall-runoff models, and more generally the design of robust and computationally efficient numerical algorithms for environmental model implementation, calibration and prediction.

Dmitri's international collaborations include the Swiss Federal Institute for Aquatic Science and Technology (EAWAG), CEMAGREF (Paris and Lyon, France), US National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Environmental Hydraulics Institute of Cantabria (Santander, Spain), and other institutions worldwide.

Research Interests

Bayesian inference and prediction in hydrology and environmental modelling. Development of novel Bayesian and Monte Carlo techniques for parameter estimation, uncertainty analysis and predictive applications. Areas of application focus on hydrological models and river system models.

Modelling in hydrology and environmental engineering. Selection of governing equations and process representations in hydrological and snow models, including scientifically defensible hypothesis testing. Model development, optimisation and testing.

Applied numerical and statistical analysis in environmental engineering. Design and implementation of accurate, robust and computationally efficient numerical algorithms and software. Solution of nonlinear differential equations, numerical integration, nonlinear optimisation problems, and others. Areas of application have included Richards equation for groundwater simulations, rainfall-runoff models, CO2 geosequestration models, and others.

  • Awards and Achievements
    Date Type Title Institution Name Country Amount
    2016 Award Outstanding Publication in Hydrological Modeling US National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) United States -
    2014 Award Research Spotlight Award from American Geophysical Union (top 5% of papers in AGU) for Westra et al (2014) American Geophysical Union United States -
    2014 Award Editors Highlight Award from Water Resources Research (top 5% of papers in WRR) for Evin et al (2014) Water Resources Research United States -
    2012 Award South Australia Young Tall Poppy Science Award Australian Institute of Policy and Science Australia -
    2011 Award Editors’ Choice Award in Water Resources Research American Geophysical Union United States -
    2011 Award Editors’ Citation for Excellence in Refereeing for Water Resources Research American Geophysical Union United States -
    2011 Award 2011 Researcher of the Year Award http://www.newcastle.edu.au Australia -
    2011 Award Vice-Chancellor’s Award for Research Excellence University of Newcastle Australia -
    2010 Award Pro Vice-Chancellor’s Award for Research Excellence, Faculty of Engineering and Built Environment University of Newcastle Australia -

  • Journals
    Year Citation
    2014 Evin, G., Thyer, M., Kavetski, D., McInerney, D., & Kuczera, G. (2014). Comparison of joint versus postprocessor approaches for hydrological uncertainty estimation accounting for error autocorrelation and heteroscedasticity. Water Resources Research, 50(3), 2350-2375.
    DOI Scopus141 WoS115
    2014 Westra, S., Thyer, M., Leonard, M., Kavetski, D., & Lambert, M. (2014). A strategy for diagnosing and interpreting hydrological model nonstationarity. Water Resources Research, 50(6), 5090-5113.
    DOI Scopus147 WoS120
    2014 Fenicia, F., Kavetski, D., Savenije, H., Clark, M., Schoups, G., Pfister, L., & Freer, J. (2014). Catchment properties, function, and conceptual model representation: is there a correspondence?. Hydrological Processes, 28(4), 2451-2467.
    DOI Scopus146 WoS118
    2014 Pagano, T., Wood, A., Ramos, M., Cloke, H., Pappenberger, F., Clark, M., . . . Verkade, J. (2014). Challenges of operational river forecasting. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 15(4), 1692-1707.
    DOI WoS108
    2013 Ershadi, A., McCabe, M., Evans, J., Mariethoz, G., & Kavetski, D. (2013). A Bayesian analysis of sensible heat flux estimation: quantifying uncertainty in meteorological forcing to improve model prediction. Water Resources Research, 49(5), 2343-2358.
    DOI Scopus17 WoS15
    2013 van Esse, W., Perrin, C., Booij, M., Augustijn, D., Fenicia, F., Kavetski, D., & Lobligeois, F. (2013). The influence of conceptual model structure on model performance: A comparative study for 237 French catchments. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17(10), 4227-4239.
    DOI Scopus95 WoS75
    2013 Hill, M., Faunt, C., Belcher, W., Sweetkind, D., Tiedeman, C., & Kavetski, D. (2013). Knowledge, transparency, and refutability in groundwater models, an example from the Death Valley regional groundwater flow system. Physics and Chemistry of the Earth (Print), 64, 105-116.
    DOI Scopus11 WoS11
    2013 Evin, G., Kavetski, D., Thyer, M., & Kuczera, G. (2013). Pitfalls and improvements in the joint inference of heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation in hydrological model calibration. Water Resources Research, 49(7), 4518-4524.
    DOI Scopus97 WoS81
    2012 Clark, M., Kavetski, D., & Fenicia, F. (2012). Reply to comment by K. Beven et al. on "Pursuing the method of multiple working hypotheses for hydrological modelling". Water Resources Research, 48(11), 1-7.
    DOI Scopus28 WoS26
    2012 Lockhart, N., Kavetski, D., & Franks, S. (2012). On the role of soil moisture in daytime evolution of temperatures. Hydrological Processes, online(26), 1-9.
    DOI Scopus12 WoS9
    2012 Fenicia, F., Pfister, L., Kavetski, D., Matgen, P., Iffly, J., Hoffmann, L., & Uijlenhoet, R. (2012). Microwave links for rainfall estimation in an urban environment: Insights from an experimental setup in Luxembourg-City. Journal of Hydrology, 464, 69-78.
    DOI Scopus39 WoS31
    2011 Renard, B., Kavetski, D., Leblois, E., Thyer, M., Kuczera, G., & Franks, S. (2011). Toward a reliable decomposition of predictive uncertainty in hydrological modeling: Characterizing rainfall errors using conditional simulation. Water Resources Research, 47(11), 1-21.
    DOI Scopus190 WoS162
    2011 McMillan, H., Jackson, B., Clark, M., Kavetski, D., & Woods, R. (2011). Rainfall uncertainty in hydrological modelling: An evaluation of multiplicative error models. Journal of Hydrology, 400(1-2), 83-94.
    DOI Scopus198 WoS166
    2011 Clark, M., McMillan, H., Collins, D., Kavetski, D., & Woods, R. (2011). Hydrological field data from a modeller's perspective: Part 2: process-based evaluation of model hypotheses. Hydrological Processes, 25(4), 523-543.
    DOI Scopus100 WoS92
    2011 Clark, M., Hendrikx, J., Slater, A., Kavetski, D., Anderson, B., Cullen, N., . . . Woods, R. (2011). Representing spatial variability of snow water equivalent in hydrologic and land-surface models: a review. Water Resources Research, 47(7), 1-25.
    DOI Scopus280 WoS335
    2011 Kavetski, D., Fenicia, F., & Clark, M. (2011). Impact of temporal data resolution on parameter inference and model identification in conceptual hydrological modeling: insights from an experimental catchment. Water Resources Research, 47(5), 1-25.
    DOI Scopus89 WoS101
    2011 Clark, M., Kavetski, D., & Fenicia, F. (2011). Pursuing the method of multiple working hypotheses for hydrological modeling. Water Resources Research, 47(9), 1-16.
    DOI Scopus421 WoS253
    2011 Kavetski, D., & Fenicia, F. (2011). Elements of a flexible approach for conceptual hydrological modeling: 2. Application and experimental insights. Water Resources Research, 47(11), 1-19.
    DOI Scopus74 WoS56
    2011 Fenicia, F., Kavetski, D., & Savenije, H. (2011). Elements of a flexible approach for conceptual hydrological modeling: 1. Motivation and theoretical development. Water Resources Research, 47(11), 1-13.
    DOI Scopus272 WoS243
    2011 Kavetski, D., & Clark, M. (2011). Numerical troubles in conceptual hydrology: approximations, absurdities and impact on hypothesis testing. Hydrological Processes, 25(4), 661-670.
    DOI Scopus61 WoS53
    2011 Thyer, M., Leonard, M., Kavetski, D., Need, S., & Renard, B. (2011). The open source RFortran library for accessing R from Fortran, with applications in environmental modelling. Environmental Modelling & Software, 26(2), 219-234.
    DOI Scopus16 WoS13
    2010 Franks, S. W., Kavetski, D., & Lockart, N. (2010). Reply to the comment of Cai et al. on the paper "on the recent warming in the Murray-Darling Basin: Land surface interactions misunderstood" by Lockart et al.. Geophysical Research Letters, 37(10), 1 page.
    DOI Scopus2 WoS2
    2010 Kuczera, G., Renard, B., Thyer, M., & Kavetski, D. (2010). There are no hydrological monsters, just models and observations with large uncertainties!. Hydrological Sciences Journal-Journal des Sciences Hydrologiques, 55(6), 980-991.
    DOI Scopus67 WoS61
    2010 Kuczera, G., Kavetski, D., Renard, B., & Thyer, M. (2010). A limited memory acceleration strategy for MCMC sampling in hierarchical Bayesian calibration of hydrological models. Water Resources Research, 46(7), 1-6.
    DOI Scopus30 WoS31
    2010 Renard, B., Kavetski, D., Kuczera, G., Thyer, M., & Franks, S. (2010). Understanding predictive uncertainty in hydrologic modeling: The challenge of identifying input and structural errors. Water Resources Research, 46(5), 1-22.
    DOI Scopus663 WoS505
    2010 Kavetski, D., & Clark, M. (2010). Ancient numerical daemons of conceptual hydrological modeling 2. Impact of time stepping schemes on model analysis and prediction. Water Resources Research, 46(10), 1-27.
    DOI Scopus138 WoS124
    2010 Clark, M., & Kavetski, D. (2010). Ancient numerical daemons of conceptual hydrological modeling: 1. Fidelity and efficiency of time stepping schemes. Water Resources Research, 46(10), 1-23.
    DOI Scopus133 WoS211
    2010 Fenicia, F., Wrede, S., Kavetski, D., Pfister, L., Hoffmann, L., Savenije, H., & McDonnell, J. (2010). Assessing the impact of mixing assumptions on the estimation of streamwater mean residence time. Hydrological Processes, 24(12), 1730-1741.
    DOI Scopus77 WoS71
    2009 Nordbotten, J., Kavetski, D., Celia, M., & Bachu, S. (2009). Model for CO₂ leakage including multiple geological layers and multiple leaky wells. Environmental Science & Technology, 43(3), 743-749.
    DOI Scopus197 WoS169 Europe PMC16
    2009 Lockart, N., Kavetski, D., & Franks, S. (2009). On the recent warming in the Murray-Darling Basin: land surface interactions misunderstood. Geophysical Research Letters, 36(24), 1-6.
    DOI Scopus32 WoS29
    2009 Renard, B., Kavetski, D., & Kuczera, G. (2009). Comment on "An integrated hydrologic Bayesian multimodel combination framework: confronting input, parameter, and model structural uncertainty in hydrologic prediction" by Newsha K. Ajami et al.. Water Resources Research, 45(3), W03603-1-W03603-10.
    DOI Scopus18 WoS14
    2009 Thyer, M., Renard, B., Kavetski, D., Kuczera, G., Franks, S., & Srikanthan, S. (2009). Critical evaluation of parameter consistency and predictive uncertainty in hydrological modeling: A case study using Bayesian total error analysis. Water Resources Research, 45(12), 1-22.
    DOI Scopus319 WoS267
    2008 Viswanathan, H., Pawar, R., Stauffer, P., Kaszuba, J., Carey, W., Olsen, S., . . . Guthrie, G. (2008). Development of a hybrid process and system model for the assessment of wellbore leakage at a geologic CO₂ sequestration site. Environmental Science & Technology, 42(19), 7280-7286.
    DOI Scopus137 WoS116 Europe PMC13
    2007 Kavetski, D., & Kaszuba, J. (2007). Model smoothing strategies to remove microscale discontinuities and spurious secondary optima in objective functions in hydrological calibration. Water Resources Research, 43(3), 1-9.
    DOI Scopus90 WoS78
    2006 Kuczera, G., Kavetski, D., Franks, S., & Thyer, M. (2006). Towards a Bayesian total error analysis of conceptual rainfall-runoff models: Characterising model error using storm-dependent parameters. Journal of Hydrology, 331(1-2), 161-177.
    DOI Scopus288 WoS244

  • Conference Papers
    Year Citation
    2013 Qin, Y., Kuczera, G., & Kavetski, D. (2013). A robust Gauss-Newton algorithm and its application to the calibration of conceptual rainfall-runoff hydrological model. In Proceedings of 35th IAHR World Congress 2013 (pp. 1-10). China: Tsinghua University Press Beijing.
    2012 Westra, S., Thyer, M., Leonard, M., Kavetski, D., & Lambert, M. (2012). Diagnosing non-stationary behaviour in a hydrological model. In Proceedings of the 34th Hydrology & Water Resources Symposium, HWRS 2012 (pp. 256-264). Australia: Engineers Australia.
    2012 Newman, A., Kuczera, G., & Kavetski, D. (2012). Towards a recursive bayesian total error analysis framework. In Proceedings of the 34th Hydrology & Water Resources Symposium, HWRS 2012 (pp. 265-273). Australia: Engineers Australia.
    2011 Clark, M., Kavetski, D., Fenicia, F., & McMillan, H. (2011). The quest for physically realistic streamflow forecasting models. In J. Sims, L. Merrin, R. Ackland, & N. Herron (Eds.), WIRADA (2012) Water Information Research and Development Alliance: Science Symposium Proceedings (pp. 209-215). Australia: Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO.
    2011 Kavetski, D., Renard, B., Evin, G., Thyer, M., Newman, A., & Kuczera, G. (2011). Uncertainties in flood forecasting: A Bayesian total error perspective. In J. Sims, L. Merrin, R. Ackland, & N. Herron (Eds.), WIRADA (2012) Water Information Research and Development Alliance: Science Symposium Proceedings (pp. 93-98). Australia: Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO.
    2011 Micevski, T., Lerat, J., Kavetski, D., Thyer, M., & Kuczera, G. (2011). Exploring the utility of multi-response calibration in river system modelling. In Proceedings of the 19th MODSIM (pp. 3889-3895). Australia: The Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and NZ.
    Scopus5 WoS4
    2011 Kavetski, D., Evin, G., Clark, M., Thyer, M., Kuczera, G., Renard, B., . . . Tuteja, N. (2011). Battling hydrological monsters: Insights into numerical approximations, data uncertainty and structural errors. In Proceedings of the 34th IAHR World Congress (pp. 1411-1418). Australia: Engineers Australia.
    Scopus1
    2011 Thyer, M., Renard, B., Kavetski, D., Kuczera, G., & Clark, M. (2011). Improving hydrological model predictions by incorporating rating curve uncertainty. In Proceedings of the 34th IAHR World Congress (pp. 1546-1553). Australia: Engineers Australia.
    Scopus3
    2011 Lockart, N., Kavetski, D., & Franks, S. (2011). Hydro-climatological variability in the Murray-Darling Basin. In S. Franks, E. Boegh, E. Blyth, D. Hannah, & K. Yilmaz (Eds.), IAHS-AISH Publication Vol. 344 (pp. 105-111). Melbourne, AUSTRALIA: INT ASSOC HYDROLOGICAL SCIENCES.
    2009 Renard, B., Leblois, E., Kuczera, G., Kavetski, D., Thyer, M., & Franks, S. (2009). Characterizing errors in areal rainfall estimates: application to uncertainty quantification and decomposition in hydrologic modelling. In Proceedings of H2009, the 32nd Hydrology and Water Resources Symposium (pp. 505-516). Australia: Engineers Australia.
    2009 Thyer, M., Renard, B., Kavetski, D., & Kuczera, G. (2009). Impact of runoff measurement error models on the quantification of predictive uncertainty in rainfall-runoff models. In Interfacing modelling and simulation with mathematical and computational sciences : 18th IMACS World Congress, MODSIM09, Cairns, Australia 13-17 July 2009 : proceedings (pp. 3414-3420). Christchurch: Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand.
    Scopus3 WoS2
    2008 Renard, B., Kuczera, G., Kavetski, D., Thyer, M., & Franks, S. (2008). Bayesian Total Error Analysis for hydrologic models: Quantifying uncertainties arising from input, output and structural errors. In 31st Hydrology and Water Resources Symposium (pp. 608-619). Modbury, SA: Engineers Australia.
    2008 Thyer, M., Renard, B., Kavetski, D., Kuczera, G., & Srikanthan, S. (2008). Investigating the impact of predicitive uncertainity in rainfall-runoff modelling on storage reliability estimates using Bayesian total error analysis. In R. Babcock, & R. Walton (Eds.), Proceedings of the World Environmental and Water Resources Congress Vol. 316 (pp. 0 pages). USA: American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE).
    DOI Scopus1
    2008 Kavetski, D., Thyer, M., Renard, B., Kuczera, G., Franks, S., & Srikanthan, S. (2008). Scrutinizing parameter consistency and predictive uncertainty in rainfall-runoff models using Bayesian total error analysis. In R. Babcock, & R. Walton (Eds.), Proceedings of the World Environmental and Water Resources Congress 2008 Vol. 316 (pp. 0 pages). USA: American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE).
    DOI Scopus1
    2007 Kuczera, G., Kavetski, D., Renard, B., & Thyer, M. (2007). Bayesian total error analysis for hydrologic models: Markov chain Monte Carlo methods to evaluate the posterior distribution. In MODSIM 2007 International Congress on Modelling and Simulation (pp. 2466-2472). Christchurch: Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand.
    Scopus8 WoS3
    2007 Renard, B., Thyer, M., Kuczera, G., & Kavetski, D. (2007). Bayesian total error analysis for hydrologic models: sensitivity to error models. In MODSIM 2007 International Congress on Modelling and Simulation (pp. 2473-2489). Christchurch: Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand,.
    Scopus5 WoS4
    2007 Thyer, M., Renard, B., Kavetski, D., Kuczera, G., & Srikanthan, R. (2007). Bayesian total error analysis for hydrological models: preliminary evaluation using multi-site catchment rainfall data. In International Congress on Modelling and Simulation 2007 (pp. 2459-2465). Christchurch: Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand.
    Scopus5 WoS3
    2007 Kavetski, D., Kuczera, G., Thyer, M., & Renard, B. (2007). Multistart Newton-type optimisation methods for the calibration of conceptual hydrological models. In MODSIM 2007 International Congress on Modelling and Simulation (pp. 2513-2519). Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand: Christchurch.
    Scopus9 WoS8
    2005 Kuczera, G., Kavetski, D., Franks, S., & Thyer, M. (2005). Characterizing model error in conceptual rainfall-runoff models using storm-dependent parameters. In MODSIM 2005 International Congress on Modelling and Simulation (pp. 2925-2931). Canberra, Australia: Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand.
    Scopus2 WoS1

Research Funding

Year Project Chief Investigators Funding Body Amount
Grants
2019-2021 Delivering robust hydrological predictions for Australia’s water resource challenges Thyer, Kavetski, Maier, Westra, Simmons, Jakeman, Croke, Gupta

Australian Research Council (ARC) Discovery Project

 $381k
2018-2020 Subseasonal streamflow forecasting Thyer and Kavetski Australian Bureau of Meteorology $426k
2014-2017 A robust integrated streamflow forecasting framework for Australian water information and management agencies Kavetski, Thyer, Kuczera, Tuteja, Shin, Seed, Lerat, Tibaldi, Clark, Wood Australian Research Council (ARC) Linkage Project $270k
2011-2013 The development of IWWS operating rules project Kuczera, Kavetski Water Corporation of Western Australia (WCWA) $468k
2011-2013 Robust optimization of urban drought security for an uncertain climate Kuczera, Kavetski, Kiem

National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility (NCCARF), Australia

 $217k
2010-2012 Robust streamflow prediction by improving the identification of hydrological model structure Kavetski, Kuczera, Thyer, Franks

Australian Research Council (ARC) Discovery Project

 $240k
2010-2013 An integrated modelling approach for the efficient management of irrigated landscapes Kuczera, Kavetski, Thyer, Franks, Selle, Githui, Thayalakumaran

Australian Research Council (ARC) Linkage Project

 $185k
2010-2012 Adapting Bayesian Total Error Analysis to river systems modelling Kuczera, Thyer, Kavetski

CSIRO, Flagship Project

 $200k
2010-2011 Supply of Bayesian Total Error Analysis Kuczera, Thyer, Kavetski Australian Bureau of Meteorology $125k
2010-2011 Improving flood forecasting via robust handling of data and model uncertainties in hydrologic predictions Thyer, Kavetski, Kuczera, Franks, Renard, Andreassian, Perrin, Lang, Sauquet

Australian Department of Innovation, Industry, Science and Research (DIISR)

 $20k
2008-2010 Urban water systems project Kuczera, Thyer, Rodriguez, Kavetski

eWater CRC, Core project

 $1,911k
2007-2011 Research Fellowship grant Kavetski University of Newcastle, Australia $491k

 

  • Current Higher Degree by Research Supervision (University of Adelaide)
    Date Role Research Topic Program Degree Type Student Load Student Name
    2023 Principal Supervisor A Unified Calibration Framework of Statistical Weather Generators for Climate Risk Assessment Doctor of Philosophy Doctorate Full Time Miss Ling-Wan You
    2019 Co-Supervisor Improving the value of subseasonal streamflow forecasts for water resource management decisions Doctor of Philosophy Doctorate Part Time Mr Richard Mark Laugesen
  • Position: Professor
  • Phone: 83131710
  • Email: dmitri.kavetski@adelaide.edu.au
  • Fax: 83134359
  • Campus: North Terrace
  • Building: Engineering North, floor 1
  • Org Unit: Environmental Engineering
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