Chaitanya Joshi
School of Public Health
College of Health
Eligible to supervise Masters and PhD - email supervisor to discuss availability.
I am a Senior Lecturer in Biostatistics at the School of Public Health. I have previously held Senior Lecturer positions in Statistics at the University of Auckland, and prior to that, at the University of Waikato - both in New Zealand. My expertise lies in Bayesian approaches to quantifying uncertainty, risk and in developing methods for better decision-making. In the recent past I have worked on applications in cyber security and crime science. I enjoy all aspects of statistics and have a diverse experience in both the methodologies as well as the applications that I have worked on over the years. Before moving to PhD and academia, I worked as a statistician on clinical trials for a couple of big pharma companies in Mumbai, the city I also grew up in.
I am an expert in Bayesian methods and I use them as follows:
- Quantifying uncertainty:
- I specialize in eliciting expert judgement and quantifying uncertainty in those expert judgements (and how this will affect the modelling outcomes),
- My mathematical work is in developing class of prior distributions that enable quantification of epistemic uncertainty in parameter estimates and translate what it means for model outcomes/predictions/risk, etc.
- Another interesting work of mine is showing how expert's subjective uncertainty in the data (how reliable it is) can be incorporated into Bayesian inference.
- As an example, my current work (along with my collaborator at UQ Business School) was for a Slovenian Insurance company on how organizations could quantify cyber risk and quantify the uncertainty in financial impact due to cyber risk.
- Strategic decision-making:
- I have supervised PhD and Masters projects on using probabilistic machine learning to quantify uncertainty in expert decision-making – on different types of data – medical images, tabulated data and textual reports.
- decision-making under uncertainty via the use of utility functions for optimal decisions, but also, behavioural economics/psychology models - that better describe how people actually make decisions instead of rational decisions they could make as per the expected utility theory. See my recent paper on how these two strategies can lead to different cyber security resource allocation in controls and insurance.
- Adversarial risk analysis (Bayesian game theoretic) models to make optimal decisions in the presence of a strategic adversary. See my paper on how this was applied to Parole Board decision-making in New Zealand.
- Security and crime science applications:
- Some of my work in cyber security and parole board decision-making is mentioned above.
- Additionally, I have been associated with NZ Institute of Security and Crime Science and worked with NZ Police, Corrections and crime science researchers on developing predictive models, on ways to better measure crime and family harm intervention outcomes etc.
- Applications in health:
- I am currently co-supervising a PhD project aimed at assessment of long-term health outcomes for hip replacement patients.
- Modelling propagation of infectious diseases across the air transport network.
- I have supervised a Masters project in identifying risk factors for hospital re-admissions.
- Other modelling/applications: I have enjoyed modelling various interesting applications over the years. These includes models in Ecology, Experimental Psychology and Traffic.
| Date | Position | Institution name |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 - ongoing | Senior Lecturer | University of Adelaide |
| 2022 - 2025 | Senior Lecturer | University of Auckland |
| 2015 - 2022 | Senior Lecturer | University of Waikato |
| 2011 - 2015 | Lecturer | University of Waikato |
| 2010 - 2011 | Research Associate | Trinity College Dublin |
| 2006 - 2007 | Executive Biostatistician | Bristol-Myers Squibb (India) |
| 2004 - 2006 | Statistical Analyst | Novartis (India) |
| 2004 - 2004 | Statistical Modelling Associate | Dun & Bradstreet |
| 2003 - 2004 | Market Research Analyst | Metric Consultancy Limited |
| Date | Institution name | Country | Title |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2007 - 2011 | Trinity College Dublin | Ireland | Ph.D. |
| 2001 - 2003 | Indian Institute of Technology Kanpur | India | M.Sc. |
| 1998 - 2001 | University of Mumbai | India | B.Sc. |
| Year | Citation |
|---|---|
| 2025 | Joshi, C., Slapničar, S., Yang, J., & Ko, R. K. L. (2025). Contrasting the optimal resource allocation to cybersecurity controls and cyber insurance using prospect theory versus expected utility theory. Computers & Security, 154, 104450. |
| 2025 | Hall, S. R., Taylor, A., Sanson, M., Joshi, C., & Garry, M. (2025). Fluency: A surprisingly overlooked area of scientific communication?. Journal of Applied Research in Memory and Cognition, 14(3), 438-443. |
| 2025 | Pearce, A., Joshi, C. A., Chan, G. A., Lamberton, T., MacLean, S., Vane, A. W., & Hébert-Losier, K. M. (2025). 15-year patient-reported outcomes of a cemented flanged cup and stem combination in primary total hip arthroplasty: a New Zealand study. HIP International. Scopus1 |
| 2025 | Pearce, A., Joshi, C., Chan, G., Lamberton, T., MacLean, S., Vane, A., & Hébert-Losier, K. (2025). 10-year survival comparison of two cemented implants in primary total hip arthroplasty for osteoarthritis: a New Zealand regional study. Archives of Orthopaedic and Trauma Surgery, 145(1), 495. |
| 2024 | Joshi, C., Nel, C., Cano, J., & Polaschek, D. L. L. (2024). Parole Board Decision-Making using Adversarial Risk Analysis. American Statistician, 78(3), 345-358. Scopus2 |
| 2024 | Jolliffe Simpson, A. D., Joshi, C., & Polaschek, D. L. L. (2024). Modeling behavioral patterns of family violence aggressors. Crime Science, 13(1), 13 pages. Scopus1 WoS1 |
| 2024 | Yang, J., Joshi, C., & Ruggeri, F. (2024). On global robustness of an adversarial risk analysis solution. Statistica Neerlandica, 78(4), 776-795. |
| 2024 | Jolliffe Simpson, A. D., Joshi, C., & Polaschek, D. L. L. (2024). Correction to: Modeling behavioral patterns of family violence aggressors (Crime Science, (2024), 13, 1, (19), 10.1186/s40163-024-00218-6). Crime Science, 13(1), 2 pages. |
| 2024 | Quirós Corte, P., Cano, J., Sánchez Ayra, E., Joshi, C., & Gómez Comendador, V. F. (2024). Modeling the Propagation of Infectious Diseases across the Air Transport Network: A Bayesian Approach. Mathematics, 12(8), 1241. |
| 2024 | Falconer, J. R., Frank, E., Polaschek, D. L. L., & Joshi, C. (2024). Eliciting Informative Priors by Modeling Expert Decision Making. Decision Analysis, 21(2), 77-90. Scopus3 WoS2 |
| 2023 | Joshi, C., Brown, P. T., & Joe, S. (2023). On approximating the shape of one-dimensional posterior marginals using the low discrepancy points. Communications in Statistics Theory and Methods, 52(16), 5568-5586. |
| 2023 | Ejaz, M., Joshi, C., & Joe, S. (2023). Adversarial risk analysis for auctions using non-strategic play and level-k thinking: A general case of n bidders with regret. Communications in Statistics Theory and Methods, 52(20), 7146-7164. Scopus3 WoS3 |
| 2023 | Joshi, C., & Ruggeri, F. (2023). On a class of prior distributions that accounts for uncertainty in the data. International Journal of Approximate Reasoning, 161, 108980. Scopus2 WoS1 |
| 2023 | Jolliffe Simpson, A. D., Joshi, C., & Polaschek, D. L. L. (2023). Unpacking Multiagency Structured Professional Judgment Risk Assessments for Family Violence. Journal of Interpersonal Violence, 38(11-12), 7702-7727. Scopus3 |
| 2022 | Elliot Noe, E., Innes, J., Barnes, A. D., Joshi, C., & Clarkson, B. D. (2022). Habitat provision is a major driver of native bird communities in restored urban forests. Journal of Animal Ecology, 91(7), 1444-1457. Scopus14 WoS12 Europe PMC5 |
| 2022 | Jordan, K., Zajac, R., Bernstein, D., Joshi, C., & Garry, M. (2022). Trivially informative semantic context inflates people's confidence they can perform a highly complex skill. Royal Society Open Science, 9(3), 15 pages. Scopus8 WoS8 Europe PMC5 |
| 2022 | Falconer, J. R., Frank, E., Polaschek, D. L. L., & Joshi, C. (2022). Methods for Eliciting Informative Prior Distributions: A Critical Review. Decision Analysis, 19(3), 189-204. Scopus20 WoS18 |
| 2021 | Joshi, C., Aliaga, J. R., & Insua, D. R. (2021). Insider Threat Modeling: An Adversarial Risk Analysis Approach. IEEE Transactions on Information Forensics and Security, 16, 1131-1142. Scopus31 WoS26 |
| 2021 | Joshi, C., Curtis-Ham, S., D’ath, C., & Searle, D. (2021). Considerations for developing predictive spatial models of crime and new methods for measuring their accuracy. ISPRS International Journal of Geo Information, 10(9), 597. Scopus1 WoS1 |
| 2021 | Brown, P. T., Joshi, C., Joe, S., & Rue, H. (2021). A novel method of marginalisation using low discrepancy sequences for integrated nested Laplace approximations. Computational Statistics and Data Analysis, 157, 107147. Scopus2 WoS2 |
| 2021 | Ejaz, M., Joshi, C., & Joe, S. (2021). Adversarial risk analysis for first-price sealed-bid auctions. Australian and New Zealand Journal of Statistics, 63(2), 357-376. Scopus9 WoS9 |
| 2021 | Ejaz, M., Joe, S., & Joshi, C. (2021). Adversarial risk analysis for auctions using mirror equilibrium and bayes nash equilibrium. Decision Analysis, 18(3), 185-202. Scopus9 WoS9 |
| 2021 | Jolliffe Simpson, A. D., Joshi, C., & Polaschek, D. L. L. (2021). Predictive Validity of the DYRA and SAFVR: New Zealand Police’s Family Violence Risk Assessment Instruments. Criminal Justice and Behavior, 48(10), 1487-1508. Scopus12 WoS11 |
| 2018 | Laughlin, D. C., Chalmandrier, L., Joshi, C., Renton, M., Dwyer, J. M., & Funk, J. L. (2018). Generating species assemblages for restoration and experimentation: A new method that can simultaneously converge on average trait values and maximize functional diversity. Methods in Ecology and Evolution, 9(7), 1764-1771. Scopus57 WoS54 |
| 2018 | Joshi, C., Ruggeri, F., & Wilson, S. P. (2018). Prior Robustness for Bayesian Implementation of the Fault Tree Analysis. IEEE Transactions on Reliability, 67(1), 170-183. Scopus15 WoS16 |
| 2017 | Rutledge, S., Wall, A. M., Mudge, P. L., Troughton, B., Campbell, D. I., Pronger, J., . . . Schipper, L. A. (2017). The carbon balance of temperate grasslands part I: The impact of increased species diversity. Agriculture Ecosystems and Environment, 239, 310-323. Scopus39 WoS39 Europe PMC12 |
| 2017 | Salmanzadeh, M., Hartland, A., Stirling, C. H., Balks, M. R., Schipper, L. A., Joshi, C., & George, E. (2017). Isotope Tracing of Long-Term Cadmium Fluxes in an Agricultural Soil. Environmental Science and Technology, 51(13), 7369-7377. Scopus85 WoS75 Europe PMC40 |
| 2017 | Rutledge, S., Wall, A. M., Mudge, P. L., Troughton, B., Campbell, D. I., Pronger, J., . . . Schipper, L. A. (2017). The carbon balance of temperate grasslands part II: The impact of pasture renewal via direct drilling. Agriculture Ecosystems and Environment, 239, 132-142. Scopus37 WoS37 Europe PMC11 |
| 2015 | Laughlin, D. C., Joshi, C., Richardson, S. J., Peltzer, D. A., Mason, N. W. H., & Wardle, D. A. (2015). Quantifying multimodal trait distributions improves trait-based predictions of species abundances and functional diversity. Journal of Vegetation Science, 26(1), 46-57. Scopus48 WoS44 Europe PMC22 |
| 2015 | Laughlin, D. C., & Joshi, C. (2015). Theoretical consequences of trait-based environmental filtering for the breadth and shape of the niche: New testable hypotheses generated by the Traitspace model. Ecological Modelling, 307, 10-21. Scopus11 WoS7 |
| 2014 | Brown, M. A., Clarkson, B. D., Barton, B. J., & Joshi, C. (2014). Implementing ecological compensation in New Zealand: Stakeholder perspectives and a way forward. Journal of the Royal Society of New Zealand, 44(1), 34-47. Scopus17 WoS14 |
| 2013 | Brown, M. A., Clarkson, B. D., Barton, B. J., & Joshi, C. (2013). Ecological compensation: An evaluation of regulatory compliance in New Zealand. Impact Assessment and Project Appraisal, 31(1), 34-44. Scopus46 WoS37 |
| 2012 | Laughlin, D. C., Joshi, C., van Bodegom, P. M., Bastow, Z. A., & Fulé, P. Z. (2012). A predictive model of community assembly that incorporates intraspecific trait variation. Ecology Letters, 15(11), 1291-1299. Scopus231 WoS215 Europe PMC119 |
| - | Jolliffe Simpson, A., Joshi, C., & Polaschek, D. (2024). Modeling behavioral patterns of family violence aggressors. CrimRxiv. |
| Year | Citation |
|---|---|
| 2015 | Li, X., Joshi, C., Tan, A. Y. S., & Ko, R. K. L. (2015). Inferring user actions from provenance logs. In Proceedings 14th IEEE International Conference on Trust Security and Privacy in Computing and Communications Trustcom 2015 Vol. 1 (pp. 742-749). FINLAND, Aalto Univ, Helsinki: IEEE. DOI Scopus4 WoS3 |
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