Dr Andrew Black
Senior Lecturer
School of Mathematical Sciences
College of Science
Eligible to supervise Masters and PhD - email supervisor to discuss availability.
My research is based around stochastic modelling, mathematical epidemiology, evolution, probabilistic learning and Bayesian inference and Data Science.
Some current projects are:
- Applying new generative machine learning techniques (diffusions, normalising flows) to create fast and flexible stochastic models for complex data.
- Analysis of household outbreak data (COVID and influenza)
- Mathematical modelling of the evolutionary transition from cells to multicellular life.
- New simulation methods and importance sampling algorithms for stochastic models.
| Date | Position | Institution name |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 - ongoing | Senior Lecturer in Applied Mathematics | University of Adelaide |
| 2019 - 2021 | Lecturer in Applied Mathematics | University of Adelaide |
| 2016 - 2019 | DECRA Research Fellow | University of Adelaide |
| Year | Citation |
|---|---|
| 2025 | Morris, D. J., Kennedy, L., & Black, A. J. (2025). Random time-shift approximation enables hierarchical Bayesian inference of mechanistic within-host viral dynamics models on large datasets. PLOS COMPUTATIONAL BIOLOGY, 21(12), 23 pages. |
| 2024 | Yuan, R., Pourmousavi, S. A., Soong, W. L., Black, A. J., Liisberg, J. A. R., & Lemos-Vinasco, J. (2024). Unleashing the benefits of smart grids by overcoming the challenges associated with low-resolution data. Cell Reports Physical Science, 5(2), 18 pages. Scopus15 WoS8 |
| 2024 | Marcato, A. J., Black, A. J., Walker, C. R., Morris, D., Meagher, N., Price, D. J., . . . Australian FFX Household Transmission Project Group. (2024). Erratum to "Learnings from the Australian first few X household transmission project for COVID-19" [The Lancet Regional Health - Western Pacific 28 (2022) 100573].. The Lancet regional health. Western Pacific, 46, 101094. WoS1 |
| 2024 | Morris, D., Maclean, J., & Black, A. J. (2024). Computation of random time-shift distributions for stochastic population models.. Journal of mathematical biology, 89(3), 33. WoS1 |
| 2024 | Li, K., Green, E. J. F., Tronnolone, H., Tam, A. K. Y., Black, A. J., Gardner, J. M., . . . Binder, B. J. (2024). An off-lattice discrete model to characterise filamentous yeast colony morphology. PLoS Computational Biology, 20(11), e1012605-1-e1012605-20. Europe PMC3 |
| 2024 | Bourrat, P., Takacs, P., Doulcier, G., Nitschke, M. C., Black, A. J., Hammerschmidt, K., & Rainey, P. B. (2024). Individuality Through Ecology: Rethinking the Evolution of Complex Life From an Externalist Perspective. Ecology and Evolution, 14(12), e70661-1-e70661-13. Scopus4 WoS3 Europe PMC2 |
| 2024 | O’loughlin, L., Maclean, J., & Black, A. (2024). Neural Likelihood Approximation for Integer Valued Time Series Data. Transactions on Machine Learning Research, 2024. |
| 2023 | O'Loughlin, L., Maclean, J., & Black, A. (2023). Neural Likelihood Approximation for Integer Valued Time Series Data. |
| 2023 | Nitschke, M. C., Black, A. J., Bourrat, P., & Rainey, P. B. (2023). The effect of bottleneck size on evolution in nested Darwinian populations.. Journal of Theoretical Biology, 561, 111414-1-111414-12. Scopus6 WoS6 Europe PMC5 |
| 2023 | Yuan, R., Pourmousavi, S. A., Soong, W. L., Black, A. J., Liisberg, J. A. R., & Lemos-Vinasco, J. (2023). A synthetic dataset of Danish residential electricity prosumers. Scientific Data, 10(1), 371-1-371-15. Scopus16 WoS12 Europe PMC4 |
| 2022 | Marcato, A., Black, A., Walker, J., Morris, D., Meagher, N., Price, D., . . . the Australian FFX Household Transmission Project Group. (2022). Learnings from the Australian First Few X Household Transmission Project for COVID-19. |
| 2022 | Shearer, F. M., Walker, J., Tellioglu, N., McCaw, J. M., McVernon, J., Black, A., & Geard, N. (2022). Rapid assessment of the risk of SARS-CoV-2 importation: case study and lessons learned. Epidemics, 38, 1-9. Scopus6 Europe PMC5 |
| 2022 | Nitschke, M., Black, A., Bourrat, P., & Rainey, P. (2022). The Effect of Bottleneck Size on Evolution in Nested Darwinian Populations. |
| 2022 | Marcato, A. J., Black, A. J., Walker, C. R., Morris, D., Meagher, N., Price, D. J., . . . Australian FFX Household Transmission Project Group. (2022). Learnings from the Australian first few X household transmission project for COVID-19.. Lancet Reg Health West Pac, 28, 100573. Scopus7 WoS9 Europe PMC6 |
| 2021 | Tong, A., Sorrell, T. C., Black, A. J., Caillaud, C., Chrzanowski, W., Li, E., . . . Zoellner, H. (2021). Research priorities for COVID-19 sensor technology. Nature Biotechnology, 39(2), 144-147. Scopus33 Europe PMC23 |
| 2021 | Ballard, P. G., Black, A. J., & Ross, J. V. (2021). Inference of population-level disease transmissibility from household-structured symptom onset data. |
| 2020 | Black, A. J., Bourrat, P., & Rainey, P. B. (2020). Ecological scaffolding and the evolution of individuality. Nature Ecology and Evolution, 4(3), 426-436. Scopus72 WoS65 Europe PMC55 |
| 2020 | Alahmadi, A., Belet, S., Black, A., Cromer, D., Flegg, J. A., House, T., . . . Zarebski, A. E. (2020). Influencing public health policy with data-informed mathematical models of infectious diseases: Recent developments and new challenges.. Epidemics, 32, 100393. Scopus34 WoS30 Europe PMC24 |
| 2020 | Moss, R., Wood, J., Brown, D., Shearer, F. M., Black, A. J., Glass, K., . . . McVernon, J. (2020). Coronavirus disease model to inform transmission reducing measures and health system preparedness, Australia. Emerging Infectious Diseases, 26(12), 2844-2853. Scopus23 WoS21 Europe PMC51 |
| 2019 | Black, A. (2019). Importance sampling for partially observed temporal epidemic models. Statistics and Computing, 29(4), 617-630. Scopus6 WoS6 |
| 2019 | Walker, J. N., Black, A. J., & Ross, J. V. (2019). Bayesian model discrimination for partially-observed epidemic models. Mathematical Biosciences, 317, 108266-1-108266-13. Scopus3 WoS3 Europe PMC1 |
| 2019 | Black, A., Bourrat, P., & Rainey, P. (2019). Ecological scaffolding and the evolution of individuality: the transition from cells to multicellular life. Europe PMC1 |
| 2018 | Yan, A., Black, A., McCaw, J., Rebuli, N., Ross, J., Swan, A., & Hickson, R. (2018). The distribution of the time taken for an epidemic to spread between two communities. Mathematical Biosciences, 303, 139-147. Scopus4 WoS5 Europe PMC2 |
| 2017 | Black, A., Geard, N., McCaw, J., McVernon, J., & Ross, J. (2017). Characterising pandemic severity and transmissibility from data collected during first few hundred studies. Epidemics, 19, 61-73. Scopus32 WoS29 Europe PMC22 |
| 2017 | Walker, J., Ross, J., & Black, A. (2017). Inference of epidemiological parameters from household stratified data. PLoS ONE, 12(10), e0185910-1-e0185910-21. Scopus6 WoS5 Europe PMC2 |
| 2016 | Lydeamore, M., Bean, N., Black, A., & Ross, J. (2016). Choice of antiviral allocation scheme for pandemic influenza depends on strain transmissibility, delivery delay and stockpile size. Bulletin of Mathematical Biology, 78(2), 293-321. Scopus2 WoS1 Europe PMC2 |
| 2015 | Ross, J., & Black, A. (2015). Contact tracing and antiviral prophylaxis in the early stages of a pandemic: the probability of a major outbreak. Mathematical Medicine and Biology, 32(3), 331-343. Scopus9 WoS8 Europe PMC5 |
| 2015 | Black, A., & Ross, J. (2015). Computation of epidemic final size distributions. Journal of Theoretical Biology, 367, 159-165. Scopus28 WoS25 Europe PMC12 |
| 2014 | Black, A., House, T., Keeling, M., & Ross, J. (2014). The effect of clumped population structure on the variability of spreading dynamics. Journal of Theoretical Biology, 359, 45-53. Scopus10 WoS11 Europe PMC8 |
| 2013 | Black, A., & Ross, J. (2013). Estimating a Markovian epidemic model using household serial interval data from the early phase of an epidemic. PLoS One, 8(8), 1-8. Scopus11 WoS9 Europe PMC8 |
| 2013 | Black, A., House, T., Keeling, M., & Ross, J. (2013). Epidemiological consequences of household-based antiviral prophylaxis for pandemic influenza. Journal of the Royal Society. Interface, 10(81), 1-10. Scopus32 WoS29 Europe PMC24 |
| 2012 | Black, A., Traulsen, A., & Galla, T. (2012). Mixing times in evolutionary game dynamics. Physical Review Letters, 109(2), 1-5. Scopus26 WoS28 Europe PMC14 |
| 2012 | Black, A., & McKane, A. (2012). Stochastic formulation of ecological models and their applications. Trends in Ecology & Evolution, 27(6), 337-345. Scopus186 WoS182 Europe PMC91 |
| 2011 | Black, A., & McKane, A. (2011). WKB calculation of an epidemic outbreak distribution. Journal of Statistical Mechanics: Theory and Experiment, 2011(12), 1-17. Scopus23 WoS23 |
| 2010 | Black, A. J., & McKane, A. J. (2010). Stochastic amplification in an epidemic model with seasonal forcing. Journal of Theoretical Biology, 267(1), 85-94. Scopus56 Europe PMC39 |
| 2010 | Black, A. J., & McKane, A. J. (2010). Stochasticity in staged models of epidemics: Quantifying the dynamics of whooping cough. Journal of the Royal Society Interface, 7(49), 1219-1227. Scopus37 Europe PMC22 |
| 2009 | Black, A. J., McKane, A. J., Nunes, A., & Parisi, A. (2009). Stochastic fluctuations in the susceptible-infective-recovered model with distributed infectious periods. Physical Review E - Statistical, Nonlinear, and Soft Matter Physics, 80(2). Scopus42 |
| Year | Citation |
|---|---|
| 2024 | Li, K., Green, E., Tronnolone, H., Tam, A., Black, A., Gardner, J., . . . Binder, B. (2024). An off-lattice discrete model to characterise filamentous yeast colony morphology. DOI |
| 2023 | Yuan, R., Pourmousavi, S. A., Soong, W. L., Black, A. J., Liisberg, J. A. R., & Lemos-Vinasco, J. (2023). A New Time Series Similarity Measure and Its Smart Grid Applications. |
| Date | Role | Research Topic | Program | Degree Type | Student Load | Student Name |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Co-Supervisor | Methods for inference and forecasting in mechanistic models with unresolved processes | Doctor of Philosophy | Doctorate | Full Time | Mr Liam Andrew Alex Blake |
| 2025 | Co-Supervisor | Methods for inference and forecasting in mechanistic models with unresolved processes | Doctor of Philosophy | Doctorate | Full Time | Mr Liam Andrew Alex Blake |
| 2024 | Principal Supervisor | Mathematical modelling of the evolution of ecologically scaffolded life cycles | Master of Philosophy | Master | Full Time | Mr Daniel John Fraterman |
| 2024 | Principal Supervisor | Mathematical modelling of the evolution of ecologically scaffolded life cycles | Master of Philosophy | Master | Full Time | Mr Daniel John Fraterman |
| 2022 | Principal Supervisor | More than just a result: using cycle threshold values in household epidemic modelling | Doctor of Philosophy | Doctorate | Full Time | Mr Dylan John Morris |
| 2022 | Principal Supervisor | More than just a result: using cycle threshold values in household epidemic modelling | Doctor of Philosophy | Doctorate | Full Time | Mr Dylan John Morris |
| Date | Role | Research Topic | Program | Degree Type | Student Load | Student Name |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 - 2025 | Co-Supervisor | Aggregated Prosumer Flexibility: An Integrated Approach from Data to Effective Demand Response Program | Doctor of Philosophy | Doctorate | Full Time | Mr Rui Yuan |
| 2021 - 2024 | Principal Supervisor | Estimating Epidemic Final-Size Probabilities and Correlated Pseudo-Marginal Inference Methods | Master of Philosophy | Master | Part Time | Mr Michael Fairbrother |
| 2021 - 2023 | Principal Supervisor | Quantifying the onset of atrial fibrillation as a phase transition from synchrony into chaos | Doctor of Philosophy | Master | Full Time | Mr Luke Phillip O'Loughlin |
| 2021 - 2023 | Principal Supervisor | A Modelling Framework for Estimating the Risk of Importation of a Novel Disease | Master of Philosophy | Master | Full Time | Mr Antonio Max Parrella |
| 2020 - 2023 | Principal Supervisor | Inference Methods for General Stochastic Epidemic Models | Master of Philosophy | Master | Full Time | Miss Shan Shan Lin |
| 2019 - 2021 | Principal Supervisor | More than just a result: using cycle threshold values in household epidemic modelling | Doctor of Philosophy | Master | Full Time | Mr Dylan John Morris |
| 2018 - 2021 | Principal Supervisor | Mathematical Modelling of the Early Stages of Multicellular Evolution | Doctor of Philosophy | Doctorate | Full Time | Mr Matthew Cody Nitschke |
| 2016 - 2020 | Co-Supervisor | Bayesian Inference and Model Selection for Partially-Observed, Continuous-Time, Stochastic Epidemic Models | Doctor of Philosophy | Doctorate | Full Time | Mr James Nicholas Walker |
| 2015 - 2017 | Co-Supervisor | Epidemiological Characterisation of 1918 Pandemic Influenza Aboard Ships | Master of Philosophy | Master | Full Time | Mr Lachlan David Bubb |
| 2015 - 2017 | Co-Supervisor | Household Models for Endemic Diseases | Master of Philosophy | Master | Full Time | Mr Jonathon James Pantelis |
| 2014 - 2016 | Co-Supervisor | Inference Methods for First Few Hundred Studies | Master of Philosophy | Master | Full Time | Mr James Nicholas Walker |
| 2013 - 2015 | Co-Supervisor | Approximations of Stochastic Household Models for Comparing Antiviral Allocation Schemes | Master of Philosophy | Master | Full Time | Michael John Lydeamore |
| Date | Role | Membership | Country |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 - ongoing | Treasurer | ANZIAM SA | Australia |
| 2017 - 2020 | Treasurer | ANZIAM Mathematical Biology Special Interest Group | Australia |
