Dr Andrew Black

Senior Lecturer

School of Mathematical Sciences

Faculty of Sciences, Engineering and Technology

Eligible to supervise Masters and PhD - email supervisor to discuss availability.

My research is based around stochastic modelling, mathematical epidemiology, evolution, probabilistic learning and Bayesian inference and Data Science.

My Research
Career
Publications
Supervision
Professional Activities
Contact

Some current projects are:

Mathematical modelling of the evolutionary transition from cells to multicellular life.
Developing inference methods to assist pandemic preparedness.
Quantifying the 1918 influenza pandemic.
New simulation methods and importance sampling algorithms for stochastic models.
Pseudo-marginal methods for Markov chain Monte Carlo.

Appointments

Date	Position	Institution name
2022 - ongoing	Senior Lecturer in Applied Mathematics	University of Adelaide
2019 - 2021	Lecturer in Applied Mathematics	University of Adelaide
2016 - 2019	DECRA Research Fellow	University of Adelaide

Research Interests

Applied Mathematics Biological Mathematics Stochastic Analysis and Modelling

Journals

Year	Citation
2022	Shearer, F. M., Walker, J., Tellioglu, N., McCaw, J. M., McVernon, J., Black, A., & Geard, N. (2022). Rapid assessment of the risk of SARS-CoV-2 importation: case study and lessons learned. Epidemics, 38, 100549. DOI
2020	Black, A. J., Bourrat, P., & Rainey, P. B. (2020). Ecological scaffolding and the evolution of individuality. Nature Ecology and Evolution, 4(3), 426-436. DOI Scopus22 WoS20 Europe PMC12
2020	Alahmadi, A., Belet, S., Black, A., Cromer, D., Flegg, J. A., House, T., . . . Zarebski, A. E. (2020). Influencing public health policy with data-informed mathematical models of infectious diseases: Recent developments and new challenges.. Epidemics, 32, 100393. DOI Scopus12 WoS9 Europe PMC6
2020	Moss, R., Wood, J., Brown, D., Shearer, F. M., Black, A. J., Glass, K., . . . McVernon, J. (2020). Coronavirus disease model to inform transmission reducing measures and health system preparedness, Australia. Emerging Infectious Diseases, 26(12), 2844-2853. DOI Scopus7 WoS6 Europe PMC8
2019	Black, A. (2019). Importance sampling for partially observed temporal epidemic models. Statistics and Computing, 29(4), 617-630. DOI Scopus3 WoS3
2019	Walker, J. N., Black, A. J., & Ross, J. V. (2019). Bayesian model discrimination for partially-observed epidemic models. Mathematical Biosciences, 317, 108266-1-108266-13. DOI
2019	Black, A., Bourrat, P., & Rainey, P. (2019). Ecological scaffolding and the evolution of individuality: the transition from cells to multicellular life. DOI
2018	Yan, A., Black, A., McCaw, J., Rebuli, N., Ross, J., Swan, A., & Hickson, R. (2018). The distribution of the time taken for an epidemic to spread between two communities. Mathematical Biosciences, 303, 139-147. DOI Scopus2 WoS2 Europe PMC1
2017	Black, A., Geard, N., McCaw, J., McVernon, J., & Ross, J. (2017). Characterising pandemic severity and transmissibility from data collected during first few hundred studies. Epidemics, 19, 61-73. DOI Scopus21 WoS20 Europe PMC12
2017	Walker, J., Ross, J., & Black, A. (2017). Inference of epidemiological parameters from household stratified data. PLoS ONE, 12(10), e0185910-1-e0185910-21. DOI Scopus5 WoS5 Europe PMC1
2016	Lydeamore, M., Bean, N., Black, A., & Ross, J. (2016). Choice of antiviral allocation scheme for pandemic influenza depends on strain transmissibility, delivery delay and stockpile size. Bulletin of Mathematical Biology, 78(2), 293-321. DOI Scopus2 WoS1 Europe PMC2
2015	Ross, J., & Black, A. (2015). Contact tracing and antiviral prophylaxis in the early stages of a pandemic: the probability of a major outbreak. Mathematical Medicine and Biology, 32(3), 331-343. DOI Scopus7 WoS6 Europe PMC3
2015	Black, A., & Ross, J. (2015). Computation of epidemic final size distributions. Journal of Theoretical Biology, 367, 159-165. DOI Scopus21 WoS21 Europe PMC7
2014	Black, A., House, T., Keeling, M., & Ross, J. (2014). The effect of clumped population structure on the variability of spreading dynamics. Journal of Theoretical Biology, 359, 45-53. DOI Scopus6 WoS6 Europe PMC5
2013	Black, A., & Ross, J. (2013). Estimating a Markovian epidemic model using household serial interval data from the early phase of an epidemic. PLoS One, 8(8), 1-8. DOI Scopus11 WoS10 Europe PMC6
2013	Black, A., House, T., Keeling, M., & Ross, J. (2013). Epidemiological consequences of household-based antiviral prophylaxis for pandemic influenza. Journal of the Royal Society. Interface, 10(81), 1-10. DOI Scopus30 WoS27 Europe PMC16
2012	Black, A., Traulsen, A., & Galla, T. (2012). Mixing times in evolutionary game dynamics. Physical Review Letters, 109(2), 1-5. DOI Scopus23 WoS26 Europe PMC9
2012	Black, A., & McKane, A. (2012). Stochastic formulation of ecological models and their applications. Trends in Ecology & Evolution, 27(6), 337-345. DOI Scopus149 WoS144 Europe PMC60
2011	Black, A., & McKane, A. (2011). WKB calculation of an epidemic outbreak distribution. Journal of Statistical Mechanics: Theory and Experiment, 2011(12), 1-17. DOI Scopus19 WoS19
2010	Black, A. J., & McKane, A. J. (2010). Stochastic amplification in an epidemic model with seasonal forcing. Journal of Theoretical Biology, 267(1), 85-94. DOI Scopus47 Europe PMC26
2010	Black, A. J., & McKane, A. J. (2010). Stochasticity in staged models of epidemics: Quantifying the dynamics of whooping cough. Journal of the Royal Society Interface, 7(49), 1219-1227. DOI Scopus30 Europe PMC17
2009	Black, A. J., McKane, A. J., Nunes, A., & Parisi, A. (2009). Stochastic fluctuations in the susceptible-infective-recovered model with distributed infectious periods. Physical Review E - Statistical, Nonlinear, and Soft Matter Physics, 80(2). DOI Scopus34
	Ballard, P. G., Black, A. J., & Ross, J. V. (n.d.). Inference of population-level disease transmissibility from household-structured symptom onset data.
	Marcato, A. J., Black, A. J., Walker, J., Morris, D., Meagher, N., Price, D. J., & McVernon, J. (n.d.). Learnings from the Australian First Few X Household Transmission Project for COVID-19. DOI

Current Higher Degree by Research Supervision (University of Adelaide)

Date	Role	Research Topic	Program	Degree Type	Student Load	Student Name
2022	Principal Supervisor	More than just a result: using cycle threshold values in household epidemic modelling	Doctor of Philosophy	Doctorate	Full Time	Mr Dylan John Morris
2021	Principal Supervisor	Fast likelihood-free inference for epidemic models using neural density estimation techniques.	Master of Philosophy	Master	Full Time	Mr Luke Phillip O'Loughlin
2021	Principal Supervisor	Diffusion Approximations for Epidemic Modelling and Correlated Pseudo-Marginal Inference Methods.	Master of Philosophy	Master	Part Time	Mr Michael Fairbrother
2021	Principal Supervisor	A modelling framework for estimating the risk of importation of a novel disease	Master of Philosophy	Master	Full Time	Mr Antonio Max Parrella
2020	Principal Supervisor	Inference of population level transmissibility in household-structured epidemic models	Master of Philosophy	Master	Full Time	Miss Shan Shan Lin

Past Higher Degree by Research Supervision (University of Adelaide)

Date	Role	Research Topic	Program	Degree Type	Student Load	Student Name
2019 - 2021	Principal Supervisor	Inference on historical Ebola outbreaks using hierarchical models: a particle filtering approach	Master of Philosophy	Master	Full Time	Mr Dylan John Morris
2018 - 2021	Principal Supervisor	Mathematical Modelling of the Early Stages of Multicellular Evolution	Doctor of Philosophy	Doctorate	Full Time	Mr Matthew Cody Nitschke
2016 - 2020	Co-Supervisor	Bayesian Inference and Model Selection for Partially-Observed, Continuous-Time, Stochastic Epidemic Models	Doctor of Philosophy	Doctorate	Full Time	Mr James Nicholas Walker
2015 - 2017	Co-Supervisor	Epidemiological Characterisation of 1918 Pandemic Influenza Aboard Ships	Master of Philosophy	Master	Full Time	Mr Lachlan David Bubb
2015 - 2017	Co-Supervisor	Household Models for Endemic Diseases	Master of Philosophy	Master	Full Time	Mr Jonathon James Pantelis
2014 - 2016	Co-Supervisor	Inference Methods for First Few Hundred Studies	Master of Philosophy	Master	Full Time	Mr James Nicholas Walker
2013 - 2015	Co-Supervisor	Approximations of Stochastic Household Models for Comparing Antiviral Allocation Schemes	Master of Philosophy	Master	Full Time	Michael John Lydeamore

Memberships

Date Role Membership Country

2017 - ongoing Treasurer ANZIAM SA Australia

2017 - 2020 Treasurer ANZIAM Mathematical Biology Special Interest Group Australia

Date	Role	Membership	Country
2017 - ongoing	Treasurer	ANZIAM SA	Australia
2017 - 2020	Treasurer	ANZIAM Mathematical Biology Special Interest Group	Australia

Position: Senior Lecturer
Phone: 83134177
Email: andrew.black@adelaide.edu.au
Fax: 83133696
Campus: North Terrace
Building: Ingkarni Wardli, floor 6
Org Unit: School of Mathematical Sciences

Dr Andrew Black

Appointments

Research Interests

Journals

Current Higher Degree by Research Supervision (University of Adelaide)

Past Higher Degree by Research Supervision (University of Adelaide)

Memberships

Connect With Me

External Profiles

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