Dr Andrew Black
Senior Lecturer
School of Computer and Mathematical Sciences
Faculty of Sciences, Engineering and Technology
Eligible to supervise Masters and PhD - email supervisor to discuss availability.
My research is based around stochastic modelling, mathematical epidemiology, evolution, probabilistic learning and Bayesian inference and Data Science.
Some current projects are:
- Mathematical modelling of the evolutionary transition from cells to multicellular life.
- Developing inference methods to assist pandemic preparedness.
- Quantifying the 1918 influenza pandemic.
- New simulation methods and importance sampling algorithms for stochastic models.
- Pseudo-marginal methods for Markov chain Monte Carlo.
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Appointments
Date Position Institution name 2022 - ongoing Senior Lecturer in Applied Mathematics University of Adelaide 2019 - 2021 Lecturer in Applied Mathematics University of Adelaide 2016 - 2019 DECRA Research Fellow University of Adelaide -
Research Interests
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Journals
Year Citation 2023 Nitschke, M. C., Black, A. J., Bourrat, P., & Rainey, P. B. (2023). The effect of bottleneck size on evolution in nested Darwinian populations.. Journal of theoretical biology, 561, 111414.
2022 Marcato, A., Black, A., Walker, J., Morris, D., Meagher, N., Price, D., . . . the Australian FFX Household Transmission Project Group. (2022). Learnings from the Australian First Few X Household Transmission Project for COVID-19.
2022 Shearer, F. M., Walker, J., Tellioglu, N., McCaw, J. M., McVernon, J., Black, A., & Geard, N. (2022). Rapid assessment of the risk of SARS-CoV-2 importation: case study and lessons learned. Epidemics, 38, 100549.
Scopus22022 Nitschke, M., Black, A., Bourrat, P., & Rainey, P. (2022). The Effect of Bottleneck Size on Evolution in Nested Darwinian Populations.
2022 Marcato, A. J., Black, A. J., Walker, C. R., Morris, D., Meagher, N., Price, D. J., & McVernon, J. (2022). Learnings from the Australian first few X household transmission project for COVID-19. The Lancet Regional Health - Western Pacific, 28, 9 pages.
Scopus1 WoS12020 Black, A. J., Bourrat, P., & Rainey, P. B. (2020). Ecological scaffolding and the evolution of individuality. Nature Ecology and Evolution, 4(3), 426-436.
Scopus34 WoS25 Europe PMC192020 Alahmadi, A., Belet, S., Black, A., Cromer, D., Flegg, J. A., House, T., . . . Zarebski, A. E. (2020). Influencing public health policy with data-informed mathematical models of infectious diseases: Recent developments and new challenges.. Epidemics, 32, 100393.
Scopus15 WoS14 Europe PMC82020 Moss, R., Wood, J., Brown, D., Shearer, F. M., Black, A. J., Glass, K., . . . McVernon, J. (2020). Coronavirus disease model to inform transmission reducing measures and health system preparedness, Australia. Emerging Infectious Diseases, 26(12), 2844-2853.
Scopus10 WoS10 Europe PMC172019 Black, A. (2019). Importance sampling for partially observed temporal epidemic models. Statistics and Computing, 29(4), 617-630.
Scopus4 WoS42019 Walker, J. N., Black, A. J., & Ross, J. V. (2019). Bayesian model discrimination for partially-observed epidemic models. Mathematical Biosciences, 317, 108266-1-108266-13.
Scopus2 WoS2 Europe PMC12019 Black, A., Bourrat, P., & Rainey, P. (2019). Ecological scaffolding and the evolution of individuality: the transition from cells to multicellular life.
2018 Yan, A., Black, A., McCaw, J., Rebuli, N., Ross, J., Swan, A., & Hickson, R. (2018). The distribution of the time taken for an epidemic to spread between two communities. Mathematical Biosciences, 303, 139-147.
Scopus2 WoS2 Europe PMC12017 Black, A., Geard, N., McCaw, J., McVernon, J., & Ross, J. (2017). Characterising pandemic severity and transmissibility from data collected during first few hundred studies. Epidemics, 19, 61-73.
Scopus25 WoS24 Europe PMC142017 Walker, J., Ross, J., & Black, A. (2017). Inference of epidemiological parameters from household stratified data. PLoS ONE, 12(10), e0185910-1-e0185910-21.
Scopus5 WoS5 Europe PMC12016 Lydeamore, M., Bean, N., Black, A., & Ross, J. (2016). Choice of antiviral allocation scheme for pandemic influenza depends on strain transmissibility, delivery delay and stockpile size. Bulletin of Mathematical Biology, 78(2), 293-321.
Scopus2 WoS1 Europe PMC22015 Ross, J., & Black, A. (2015). Contact tracing and antiviral prophylaxis in the early stages of a pandemic: the probability of a major outbreak. Mathematical Medicine and Biology, 32(3), 331-343.
Scopus8 WoS7 Europe PMC42015 Black, A., & Ross, J. (2015). Computation of epidemic final size distributions. Journal of Theoretical Biology, 367, 159-165.
Scopus23 WoS22 Europe PMC82014 Black, A., House, T., Keeling, M., & Ross, J. (2014). The effect of clumped population structure on the variability of spreading dynamics. Journal of Theoretical Biology, 359, 45-53.
Scopus7 WoS8 Europe PMC62013 Black, A., & Ross, J. (2013). Estimating a Markovian epidemic model using household serial interval data from the early phase of an epidemic. PLoS One, 8(8), 1-8.
Scopus11 WoS10 Europe PMC72013 Black, A., House, T., Keeling, M., & Ross, J. (2013). Epidemiological consequences of household-based antiviral prophylaxis for pandemic influenza. Journal of the Royal Society. Interface, 10(81), 1-10.
Scopus31 WoS28 Europe PMC162012 Black, A., Traulsen, A., & Galla, T. (2012). Mixing times in evolutionary game dynamics. Physical Review Letters, 109(2), 1-5.
Scopus24 WoS26 Europe PMC92012 Black, A., & McKane, A. (2012). Stochastic formulation of ecological models and their applications. Trends in Ecology & Evolution, 27(6), 337-345.
Scopus157 WoS149 Europe PMC622011 Black, A., & McKane, A. (2011). WKB calculation of an epidemic outbreak distribution. Journal of Statistical Mechanics: Theory and Experiment, 2011(12), 1-17.
Scopus20 WoS192010 Black, A. J., & McKane, A. J. (2010). Stochastic amplification in an epidemic model with seasonal forcing. Journal of Theoretical Biology, 267(1), 85-94.
Scopus48 Europe PMC262010 Black, A. J., & McKane, A. J. (2010). Stochasticity in staged models of epidemics: Quantifying the dynamics of whooping cough. Journal of the Royal Society Interface, 7(49), 1219-1227.
Scopus34 Europe PMC182009 Black, A. J., McKane, A. J., Nunes, A., & Parisi, A. (2009). Stochastic fluctuations in the susceptible-infective-recovered model with distributed infectious periods. Physical Review E - Statistical, Nonlinear, and Soft Matter Physics, 80(2).
Scopus36- Ballard, P. G., Black, A. J., & Ross, J. V. (n.d.). Inference of population-level disease transmissibility from
household-structured symptom onset data.
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Current Higher Degree by Research Supervision (University of Adelaide)
Date Role Research Topic Program Degree Type Student Load Student Name 2022 Principal Supervisor More than just a result: using cycle threshold values in household epidemic modelling Doctor of Philosophy Doctorate Full Time Mr Dylan John Morris 2022 Co-Supervisor UAiPhD - Flexibility Aggregator Simulation Platform (FRESNO): Prosumers Price Response Modelling (FRESNO B) Doctor of Philosophy Doctorate Full Time Mr Rui Yuan 2021 Principal Supervisor Diffusion Approximations for Epidemic Modelling and Correlated Pseudo-Marginal Inference Methods. Master of Philosophy Master Part Time Mr Michael Fairbrother 2021 Principal Supervisor Fast likelihood-free inference for epidemic models using neural density estimation techniques. Master of Philosophy Master Full Time Mr Luke Phillip O'Loughlin 2021 Principal Supervisor A modelling framework for estimating the risk of importation of a novel disease Master of Philosophy Master Full Time Mr Antonio Max Parrella -
Past Higher Degree by Research Supervision (University of Adelaide)
Date Role Research Topic Program Degree Type Student Load Student Name 2019 - 2021 Principal Supervisor Inference on historical Ebola outbreaks using hierarchical models: a particle filtering approach Master of Philosophy Master Full Time Mr Dylan John Morris 2018 - 2021 Principal Supervisor Mathematical Modelling of the Early Stages of Multicellular Evolution Doctor of Philosophy Doctorate Full Time Mr Matthew Cody Nitschke 2016 - 2020 Co-Supervisor Bayesian Inference and Model Selection for Partially-Observed, Continuous-Time, Stochastic Epidemic Models Doctor of Philosophy Doctorate Full Time Mr James Nicholas Walker 2015 - 2017 Co-Supervisor Epidemiological Characterisation of 1918 Pandemic Influenza Aboard Ships Master of Philosophy Master Full Time Mr Lachlan David Bubb 2015 - 2017 Co-Supervisor Household Models for Endemic Diseases Master of Philosophy Master Full Time Mr Jonathon James Pantelis 2014 - 2016 Co-Supervisor Inference Methods for First Few Hundred Studies Master of Philosophy Master Full Time Mr James Nicholas Walker 2013 - 2015 Co-Supervisor Approximations of Stochastic Household Models for Comparing Antiviral Allocation Schemes Master of Philosophy Master Full Time Michael John Lydeamore
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Memberships
Date Role Membership Country 2017 - ongoing Treasurer ANZIAM SA Australia 2017 - 2020 Treasurer ANZIAM Mathematical Biology Special Interest Group Australia
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