Dr Andrew Black
Senior Lecturer
School of Computer and Mathematical Sciences
Faculty of Sciences, Engineering and Technology
Eligible to supervise Masters and PhD - email supervisor to discuss availability.
My research is based around stochastic modelling, mathematical epidemiology, evolution, probabilistic learning and Bayesian inference and Data Science.
Some current projects are:
- Applying new generative machine learning techniques (diffusions, normalising flows) to create fast and flexible stochastic models for complex data.
- Analysis of household outbreak data (COVID and influenza)
- Mathematical modelling of the evolutionary transition from cells to multicellular life.
- New simulation methods and importance sampling algorithms for stochastic models.
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Appointments
Date Position Institution name 2022 - ongoing Senior Lecturer in Applied Mathematics University of Adelaide 2019 - 2021 Lecturer in Applied Mathematics University of Adelaide 2016 - 2019 DECRA Research Fellow University of Adelaide -
Research Interests
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Journals
Year Citation 2024 Yuan, R., Pourmousavi, S. A., Soong, W. L., Black, A. J., Liisberg, J. A. R., & Lemos-Vinasco, J. (2024). Unleashing the benefits of smart grids by overcoming the challenges associated with low-resolution data. Cell Reports Physical Science, 5(2), 18 pages.
Scopus22024 Marcato, A. J., Black, A. J., Walker, C. R., Morris, D., Meagher, N., Price, D. J., . . . Australian FFX Household Transmission Project Group. (2024). Erratum to "Learnings from the Australian first few X household transmission project for COVID-19" [The Lancet Regional Health - Western Pacific 28 (2022) 100573].. The Lancet regional health. Western Pacific, 46, 101094.
2024 Morris, D., Maclean, J., & Black, A. J. (2024). Computation of random time-shift distributions for stochastic population models. Journal of Mathematical Biology, 89(3), 40 pages.
2023 O'Loughlin, L., Maclean, J., & Black, A. (2023). Neural Likelihood Approximation for Integer Valued Time Series Data. 2023 Yuan, R., Pourmousavi, S. A., Soong, W. L., Black, A. J., Liisberg, J. A. R., & Lemos-Vinasco, J. (2023). A New Time Series Similarity Measure and Its Smart Grid Applications. 2023 Nitschke, M. C., Black, A. J., Bourrat, P., & Rainey, P. B. (2023). The effect of bottleneck size on evolution in nested Darwinian populations.. Journal of Theoretical Biology, 561, 111414-1-111414-12.
Scopus5 Europe PMC42023 Yuan, R., Pourmousavi, S. A., Soong, W. L., Black, A. J., Liisberg, J. A. R., & Lemos-Vinasco, J. (2023). A synthetic dataset of Danish residential electricity prosumers. Scientific Data, 10(1), 371-1-371-15.
Scopus2 Europe PMC12022 Marcato, A., Black, A., Walker, J., Morris, D., Meagher, N., Price, D., . . . the Australian FFX Household Transmission Project Group. (2022). Learnings from the Australian First Few X Household Transmission Project for COVID-19.
2022 Shearer, F. M., Walker, J., Tellioglu, N., McCaw, J. M., McVernon, J., Black, A., & Geard, N. (2022). Rapid assessment of the risk of SARS-CoV-2 importation: case study and lessons learned. Epidemics, 38, 1-9.
Scopus4 Europe PMC32022 Nitschke, M., Black, A., Bourrat, P., & Rainey, P. (2022). The Effect of Bottleneck Size on Evolution in Nested Darwinian Populations.
2022 Marcato, A. J., Black, A. J., Walker, C. R., Morris, D., Meagher, N., Price, D. J., . . . Wood, N. (2022). Learnings from the Australian first few X household transmission project for COVID-19. The Lancet Regional Health - Western Pacific, 28, 9 pages.
Scopus4 WoS2 Europe PMC42021 Tong, A., Sorrell, T. C., Black, A. J., Caillaud, C., Chrzanowski, W., Li, E., . . . Zoellner, H. (2021). Research priorities for COVID-19 sensor technology. Nature Biotechnology, 39(2), 144-147.
Scopus30 Europe PMC162021 Ballard, P. G., Black, A. J., & Ross, J. V. (2021). Inference of population-level disease transmissibility from
household-structured symptom onset data.2020 Black, A. J., Bourrat, P., & Rainey, P. B. (2020). Ecological scaffolding and the evolution of individuality. Nature Ecology and Evolution, 4(3), 426-436.
Scopus59 WoS40 Europe PMC292020 Alahmadi, A., Belet, S., Black, A., Cromer, D., Flegg, J. A., House, T., . . . Zarebski, A. E. (2020). Influencing public health policy with data-informed mathematical models of infectious diseases: Recent developments and new challenges.. Epidemics, 32, 100393.
Scopus26 WoS16 Europe PMC132020 Moss, R., Wood, J., Brown, D., Shearer, F. M., Black, A. J., Glass, K., . . . McVernon, J. (2020). Coronavirus disease model to inform transmission reducing measures and health system preparedness, Australia. Emerging Infectious Diseases, 26(12), 2844-2853.
Scopus19 WoS15 Europe PMC442019 Black, A. (2019). Importance sampling for partially observed temporal epidemic models. Statistics and Computing, 29(4), 617-630.
Scopus5 WoS42019 Walker, J. N., Black, A. J., & Ross, J. V. (2019). Bayesian model discrimination for partially-observed epidemic models. Mathematical Biosciences, 317, 108266-1-108266-13.
Scopus2 WoS2 Europe PMC12019 Black, A., Bourrat, P., & Rainey, P. (2019). Ecological scaffolding and the evolution of individuality: the transition from cells to multicellular life.
2018 Yan, A., Black, A., McCaw, J., Rebuli, N., Ross, J., Swan, A., & Hickson, R. (2018). The distribution of the time taken for an epidemic to spread between two communities. Mathematical Biosciences, 303, 139-147.
Scopus3 WoS2 Europe PMC12017 Black, A., Geard, N., McCaw, J., McVernon, J., & Ross, J. (2017). Characterising pandemic severity and transmissibility from data collected during first few hundred studies. Epidemics, 19, 61-73.
Scopus30 WoS25 Europe PMC172017 Walker, J., Ross, J., & Black, A. (2017). Inference of epidemiological parameters from household stratified data. PLoS ONE, 12(10), e0185910-1-e0185910-21.
Scopus5 WoS5 Europe PMC12016 Lydeamore, M., Bean, N., Black, A., & Ross, J. (2016). Choice of antiviral allocation scheme for pandemic influenza depends on strain transmissibility, delivery delay and stockpile size. Bulletin of Mathematical Biology, 78(2), 293-321.
Scopus2 WoS1 Europe PMC22015 Ross, J., & Black, A. (2015). Contact tracing and antiviral prophylaxis in the early stages of a pandemic: the probability of a major outbreak. Mathematical Medicine and Biology, 32(3), 331-343.
Scopus8 WoS7 Europe PMC42015 Black, A., & Ross, J. (2015). Computation of epidemic final size distributions. Journal of Theoretical Biology, 367, 159-165.
Scopus25 WoS23 Europe PMC82014 Black, A., House, T., Keeling, M., & Ross, J. (2014). The effect of clumped population structure on the variability of spreading dynamics. Journal of Theoretical Biology, 359, 45-53.
Scopus9 WoS9 Europe PMC72013 Black, A., & Ross, J. (2013). Estimating a Markovian epidemic model using household serial interval data from the early phase of an epidemic. PLoS One, 8(8), 1-8.
Scopus11 WoS10 Europe PMC72013 Black, A., House, T., Keeling, M., & Ross, J. (2013). Epidemiological consequences of household-based antiviral prophylaxis for pandemic influenza. Journal of the Royal Society. Interface, 10(81), 1-10.
Scopus31 WoS28 Europe PMC172012 Black, A., Traulsen, A., & Galla, T. (2012). Mixing times in evolutionary game dynamics. Physical Review Letters, 109(2), 1-5.
Scopus26 WoS27 Europe PMC102012 Black, A., & McKane, A. (2012). Stochastic formulation of ecological models and their applications. Trends in Ecology & Evolution, 27(6), 337-345.
Scopus169 WoS155 Europe PMC662011 Black, A., & McKane, A. (2011). WKB calculation of an epidemic outbreak distribution. Journal of Statistical Mechanics: Theory and Experiment, 2011(12), 1-17.
Scopus20 WoS202010 Black, A. J., & McKane, A. J. (2010). Stochastic amplification in an epidemic model with seasonal forcing. Journal of Theoretical Biology, 267(1), 85-94.
Scopus52 Europe PMC272010 Black, A. J., & McKane, A. J. (2010). Stochasticity in staged models of epidemics: Quantifying the dynamics of whooping cough. Journal of the Royal Society Interface, 7(49), 1219-1227.
Scopus37 Europe PMC182009 Black, A. J., McKane, A. J., Nunes, A., & Parisi, A. (2009). Stochastic fluctuations in the susceptible-infective-recovered model with distributed infectious periods. Physical Review E - Statistical, Nonlinear, and Soft Matter Physics, 80(2).
Scopus42 -
Preprint
Year Citation 2024 Li, K., Green, E., Tronnolone, H., Tam, A., Black, A., Gardner, J., . . . Binder, B. (2024). An off-lattice discrete model to characterise filamentous yeast colony morphology.
DOI
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Current Higher Degree by Research Supervision (University of Adelaide)
Date Role Research Topic Program Degree Type Student Load Student Name 2024 Principal Supervisor Mathematical modelling of the evolution of ecologically scaffolded life cycles Master of Philosophy Master Full Time Mr Daniel John Fraterman 2022 Principal Supervisor More than just a result: using cycle threshold values in household epidemic modelling Doctor of Philosophy Doctorate Full Time Mr Dylan John Morris 2022 Co-Supervisor UAiPhD - Flexibility Aggregator Simulation Platform (FRESNO): Prosumers Price Response Modelling (FRESNO B) Doctor of Philosophy Doctorate Full Time Mr Rui Yuan -
Past Higher Degree by Research Supervision (University of Adelaide)
Date Role Research Topic Program Degree Type Student Load Student Name 2021 - 2024 Principal Supervisor Estimating Epidemic Final-Size Probabilities and Correlated Pseudo-Marginal Inference Methods Master of Philosophy Master Part Time Mr Michael Fairbrother 2021 - 2023 Principal Supervisor Likelihood-Free Inference for Discrete Time Series Data Using Machine Learning Master of Philosophy Master Full Time Mr Luke Phillip O'Loughlin 2021 - 2023 Principal Supervisor A Modelling Framework for Estimating the Risk of Importation of a Novel Disease Master of Philosophy Master Full Time Mr Antonio Max Parrella 2020 - 2023 Principal Supervisor Inference Methods for General Stochastic Epidemic Models Master of Philosophy Master Full Time Miss Shan Shan Lin 2019 - 2021 Principal Supervisor Inference on historical Ebola outbreaks using hierarchical models: a particle filtering approach Master of Philosophy Master Full Time Mr Dylan John Morris 2018 - 2021 Principal Supervisor Mathematical Modelling of the Early Stages of Multicellular Evolution Doctor of Philosophy Doctorate Full Time Mr Matthew Cody Nitschke 2016 - 2020 Co-Supervisor Bayesian Inference and Model Selection for Partially-Observed, Continuous-Time, Stochastic Epidemic Models Doctor of Philosophy Doctorate Full Time Mr James Nicholas Walker 2015 - 2017 Co-Supervisor Epidemiological Characterisation of 1918 Pandemic Influenza Aboard Ships Master of Philosophy Master Full Time Mr Lachlan David Bubb 2015 - 2017 Co-Supervisor Household Models for Endemic Diseases Master of Philosophy Master Full Time Mr Jonathon James Pantelis 2014 - 2016 Co-Supervisor Inference Methods for First Few Hundred Studies Master of Philosophy Master Full Time Mr James Nicholas Walker 2013 - 2015 Co-Supervisor Approximations of Stochastic Household Models for Comparing Antiviral Allocation Schemes Master of Philosophy Master Full Time Michael John Lydeamore
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Memberships
Date Role Membership Country 2017 - ongoing Treasurer ANZIAM SA Australia 2017 - 2020 Treasurer ANZIAM Mathematical Biology Special Interest Group Australia
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