Chaitanya Joshi

Chaitanya Joshi

School of Public Health

Faculty of Health and Medical Sciences

I am a Senior Lecturer in Biostatistics at the School of Public Health. I have previously held Senior Lecturer positions in Statistics at the University of Auckland, and prior to that, at the University of Waikato - both in New Zealand. My expertise lies in Bayesian approaches to quantifying uncertainty, risk and in developing methods for better decision-making. In the recent past I have worked on applications in cyber security and crime science.

I enjoy all aspects of statistics and have a diverse experience in both the methodologies as well as the applications that I have worked on over the years. Before moving to PhD and academia, I worked as a statistician on clinical trials for a couple of big pharma companies in Mumbai, the city I also grew up in.

I am an expert in Bayesian methods and I use them as follows:

  • Quantifying uncertainty:
    • I specialize in eliciting expert judgement and quantifying uncertainty in those expert judgements (and how this will affect the modelling outcomes),
    • My mathematical work is in developing class of prior distributions that enable quantification of epistemic uncertainty in parameter estimates and translate what it means for model outcomes/predictions/risk, etc.
    • Another interesting work of mine is showing how expert's subjective uncertainty in the data (how reliable it is) can be incorporated into Bayesian inference.
    • As an example, my current work (along with my collaborator at UQ Business School) was for a Slovenian Insurance company on how organizations could quantify cyber risk and quantify the uncertainty in financial impact due to cyber risk.
  • Strategic decision-making:
    • I have supervised PhD and Masters projects on using probabilistic machine learning to quantify uncertainty in expert decision-making – on different types of data – medical images, tabulated data and textual reports.
    • decision-making under uncertainty via the use of utility functions for optimal decisions, but also, behavioural economics/psychology models - that better describe how people actually make decisions instead of rational decisions they could make as per the expected utility theory. See my recent paper on how these two strategies can lead to different cyber security resource allocation in controls and insurance.
    • Adversarial risk analysis (Bayesian game theoretic) models to make optimal decisions in the presence of a strategic adversary. See my paper on how this was applied to Parole Board decision-making in New Zealand.
  • Security and crime science applications:
    • Some of my work in cyber security and parole board decision-making is mentioned above.
    • Additionally, I have been associated with NZ Institute of Security and Crime Science and worked with NZ Police, Corrections and crime science researchers on developing predictive models, on ways to better measure crime and family harm intervention outcomes etc.
  • Applications in health:
    • I am currently co-supervising a PhD project aimed at assessment of long-term health outcomes for hip replacement patients.
    • Modelling propagation of infectious diseases across the air transport network.
    • I have supervised a Masters project in identifying risk factors for hospital re-admissions.
  • Other modelling/applications: I have enjoyed modelling various interesting applications over the years. These includes models in Ecology, Experimental Psychology and Traffic.

  • Appointments
    Date Position Institution name
    2025 - ongoing Senior Lecturer University of Adelaide
    2022 - 2025 Senior Lecturer University of Auckland
    2015 - 2022 Senior Lecturer University of Waikato
    2011 - 2015 Lecturer University of Waikato
    2010 - 2011 Research Associate Trinity College Dublin
    2006 - 2007 Executive Biostatistician Bristol-Myers Squibb (India)
    2004 - 2006 Statistical Analyst Novartis (India)
    2004 - 2004 Statistical Modelling Associate Dun & Bradstreet
    2003 - 2004 Market Research Analyst Metric Consultancy Limited

  • Education
    Date Institution name Country Title
    2007 - 2011 Trinity College Dublin Ireland Ph.D.
    2001 - 2003 Indian Institute of Technology Kanpur India M.Sc.
    1998 - 2001 University of Mumbai India B.Sc.

  • Journals
    Year Citation
    2025 Joshi, C., Slapničar, S., Yang, J., & Ko, R. K. L. (2025). Contrasting the optimal resource allocation to cybersecurity controls and cyber insurance using prospect theory versus expected utility theory. Computers and Security, 154, 104450.
    DOI
    2024 Joshi, C., Nel, C., Cano, J., & Polaschek, D. L. L. (2024). Parole Board Decision-Making using Adversarial Risk Analysis. American Statistician, 78(3), 345-358.
    DOI Scopus2
    2024 Jolliffe Simpson, A. D., Joshi, C., & Polaschek, D. L. L. (2024). Modeling behavioral patterns of family violence aggressors. Crime Science, 13(1), 13 pages.
    DOI Scopus1
    2024 Yang, J., Joshi, C., & Ruggeri, F. (2024). On global robustness of an adversarial risk analysis solution. Statistica Neerlandica, 78(4), 776-795.
    DOI
    2024 Jolliffe Simpson, A. D., Joshi, C., & Polaschek, D. L. L. (2024). Correction to: Modeling behavioral patterns of family violence aggressors (Crime Science, (2024), 13, 1, (19), 10.1186/s40163-024-00218-6). Crime Science, 13(1), 2 pages.
    DOI
    2024 Quirós Corte, P., Cano, J., Sánchez Ayra, E., Joshi, C., & Gómez Comendador, V. F. (2024). Modeling the Propagation of Infectious Diseases across the Air Transport Network: A Bayesian Approach. Mathematics, 12(8), 1241.
    DOI
    2024 Falconer, J. R., Frank, E., Polaschek, D. L. L., & Joshi, C. (2024). Eliciting Informative Priors by Modeling Expert Decision Making. Decision Analysis, 21(2), 77-90.
    DOI Scopus3
    2023 Joshi, C., Brown, P. T., & Joe, S. (2023). On approximating the shape of one-dimensional posterior marginals using the low discrepancy points. Communications in Statistics Theory and Methods, 52(16), 5568-5586.
    DOI
    2023 Ejaz, M., Joshi, C., & Joe, S. (2023). Adversarial risk analysis for auctions using non-strategic play and level-k thinking: A general case of n bidders with regret. Communications in Statistics Theory and Methods, 52(20), 7146-7164.
    DOI Scopus3
    2023 Joshi, C., & Ruggeri, F. (2023). On a class of prior distributions that accounts for uncertainty in the data. International Journal of Approximate Reasoning, 161, 19 pages.
    DOI Scopus1
    2023 Jolliffe Simpson, A. D., Joshi, C., & Polaschek, D. L. L. (2023). Unpacking Multiagency Structured Professional Judgment Risk Assessments for Family Violence. Journal of Interpersonal Violence, 38(11-12), 7702-7727.
    DOI Scopus3
    2022 Elliot Noe, E., Innes, J., Barnes, A. D., Joshi, C., & Clarkson, B. D. (2022). Habitat provision is a major driver of native bird communities in restored urban forests. Journal of Animal Ecology, 91(7), 1444-1457.
    DOI Scopus13 Europe PMC5
    2022 Jordan, K., Zajac, R., Bernstein, D., Joshi, C., & Garry, M. (2022). Trivially informative semantic context inflates people's confidence they can perform a highly complex skill. Royal Society Open Science, 9(3), 15 pages.
    DOI Scopus8 Europe PMC5
    2022 Falconer, J. R., Frank, E., Polaschek, D. L. L., & Joshi, C. (2022). Methods for Eliciting Informative Prior Distributions: A Critical Review. Decision Analysis, 19(3), 189-204.
    DOI Scopus19
    2021 Joshi, C., Aliaga, J. R., & Insua, D. R. (2021). Insider Threat Modeling: An Adversarial Risk Analysis Approach. IEEE Transactions on Information Forensics and Security, 16, 1131-1142.
    DOI Scopus30
    2021 Joshi, C., Curtis-Ham, S., D’ath, C., & Searle, D. (2021). Considerations for developing predictive spatial models of crime and new methods for measuring their accuracy. ISPRS International Journal of Geo Information, 10(9), 18 pages.
    DOI Scopus1
    2021 Brown, P. T., Joshi, C., Joe, S., & Rue, H. (2021). A novel method of marginalisation using low discrepancy sequences for integrated nested Laplace approximations. Computational Statistics and Data Analysis, 157, 18 pages.
    DOI Scopus2
    2021 Ejaz, M., Joshi, C., & Joe, S. (2021). Adversarial risk analysis for first-price sealed-bid auctions. Australian and New Zealand Journal of Statistics, 63(2), 357-376.
    DOI Scopus9
    2021 Ejaz, M., Joe, S., & Joshi, C. (2021). Adversarial risk analysis for auctions using mirror equilibrium and bayes nash equilibrium. Decision Analysis, 18(3), 185-202.
    DOI Scopus9
    2021 Jolliffe Simpson, A. D., Joshi, C., & Polaschek, D. L. L. (2021). Predictive Validity of the DYRA and SAFVR: New Zealand Police’s Family Violence Risk Assessment Instruments. Criminal Justice and Behavior, 48(10), 1487-1508.
    DOI Scopus11
    2018 Laughlin, D. C., Chalmandrier, L., Joshi, C., Renton, M., Dwyer, J. M., & Funk, J. L. (2018). Generating species assemblages for restoration and experimentation: A new method that can simultaneously converge on average trait values and maximize functional diversity. Methods in Ecology and Evolution, 9(7), 1764-1771.
    DOI Scopus51
    2018 Joshi, C., Ruggeri, F., & Wilson, S. P. (2018). Prior Robustness for Bayesian Implementation of the Fault Tree Analysis. IEEE Transactions on Reliability, 67(1), 170-183.
    DOI Scopus13
    2017 Rutledge, S., Wall, A. M., Mudge, P. L., Troughton, B., Campbell, D. I., Pronger, J., . . . Schipper, L. A. (2017). The carbon balance of temperate grasslands part I: The impact of increased species diversity. Agriculture Ecosystems and Environment, 239, 310-323.
    DOI Scopus36 Europe PMC5
    2017 Salmanzadeh, M., Hartland, A., Stirling, C. H., Balks, M. R., Schipper, L. A., Joshi, C., & George, E. (2017). Isotope Tracing of Long-Term Cadmium Fluxes in an Agricultural Soil. Environmental Science and Technology, 51(13), 7369-7377.
    DOI Scopus83 Europe PMC19
    2017 Rutledge, S., Wall, A. M., Mudge, P. L., Troughton, B., Campbell, D. I., Pronger, J., . . . Schipper, L. A. (2017). The carbon balance of temperate grasslands part II: The impact of pasture renewal via direct drilling. Agriculture Ecosystems and Environment, 239, 132-142.
    DOI Scopus33 Europe PMC3
    2015 Laughlin, D. C., Joshi, C., Richardson, S. J., Peltzer, D. A., Mason, N. W. H., & Wardle, D. A. (2015). Quantifying multimodal trait distributions improves trait-based predictions of species abundances and functional diversity. Journal of Vegetation Science, 26(1), 46-57.
    DOI Scopus43 Europe PMC16
    2015 Laughlin, D. C., & Joshi, C. (2015). Theoretical consequences of trait-based environmental filtering for the breadth and shape of the niche: New testable hypotheses generated by the Traitspace model. Ecological Modelling, 307, 10-21.
    DOI Scopus10
    2014 Brown, M. A., Clarkson, B. D., Barton, B. J., & Joshi, C. (2014). Implementing ecological compensation in New Zealand: Stakeholder perspectives and a way forward. Journal of the Royal Society of New Zealand, 44(1), 34-47.
    DOI Scopus17
    2013 Brown, M. A., Clarkson, B. D., Barton, B. J., & Joshi, C. (2013). Ecological compensation: An evaluation of regulatory compliance in New Zealand. Impact Assessment and Project Appraisal, 31(1), 34-44.
    DOI Scopus45
    2012 Laughlin, D. C., Joshi, C., van Bodegom, P. M., Bastow, Z. A., & Fulé, P. Z. (2012). A predictive model of community assembly that incorporates intraspecific trait variation. Ecology Letters, 15(11), 1291-1299.
    DOI Scopus221 Europe PMC105

  • Conference Papers
    Year Citation
    2015 Li, X., Joshi, C., Tan, A. Y. S., & Ko, R. K. L. (2015). Inferring user actions from provenance logs. In Proceedings 14th IEEE International Conference on Trust Security and Privacy in Computing and Communications Trustcom 2015 Vol. 1 (pp. 742-749). FINLAND, Aalto Univ, Helsinki: IEEE.
    DOI Scopus4
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