Andrew Black

Research Interests

Applied Mathematics Biological Mathematics Statistics & Probability Stochastic Analysis and Modelling

Dr Andrew Black

Senior Lecturer

School of Mathematical Sciences

College of Science

Eligible to supervise Masters and PhD as Principal Supervisor - email supervisor to discuss availability.

My research is based around stochastic modelling, mathematical epidemiology, evolution, probabilistic learning and Bayesian inference and Data Science.

Some current projects are:

  • Applying new generative machine learning techniques (diffusions, normalising flows) to create fast and flexible stochastic models for complex data.
  • Analysis of household outbreak data (COVID and influenza)
  • Mathematical modelling of the evolutionary transition from cells to multicellular life.
  • New simulation methods and importance sampling algorithms for stochastic models.

Date Position Institution name
2022 - ongoing Senior Lecturer in Applied Mathematics University of Adelaide
2019 - 2021 Lecturer in Applied Mathematics University of Adelaide
2016 - 2019 DECRA Research Fellow University of Adelaide

Year Citation
2026 Li, K., Tam, A. K. Y., Gardner, J. M., Sundstrom, J. F., Jiranek, V., Green, J. E. F., . . . Black, A. J. (2026). Agent-based modelling and time-series inference of filamentous yeast colonies. Royal Society Open Science, 13(4), 260038 -1-260038 -8.
DOI Scopus1 WoS2
2026 Li, K. A. I., Black, A. J., KNEŽEVIĆ, T. E. A., Gardner, J. M., Zhang, J. I. N., Jiranek, V. L. A. D. I. M. I. R., . . . Tam, A. K. Y. (2026). Modelling the emergence of spiral colony morphology in the yeast Magnusiomyces Magnusii. ANZIAM Journal, 68, e13-1-e13-25.
DOI
2025 Morris, D. J., Kennedy, L., & Black, A. J. (2025). Random time-shift approximation enables hierarchical Bayesian inference of mechanistic within-host viral dynamics models on large datasets.. PLoS Comput Biol, 21(12), e1013775.
DOI Europe PMC1
2024 Yuan, R., Pourmousavi, S. A., Soong, W. L., Black, A. J., Liisberg, J. A. R., & Lemos-Vinasco, J. (2024). Unleashing the benefits of smart grids by overcoming the challenges associated with low-resolution data. Cell Reports Physical Science, 5(2), 101830.
DOI Scopus21 WoS10
2024 Marcato, A. J., Black, A. J., Walker, C. R., Morris, D., Meagher, N., Price, D. J., . . . Australian FFX Household Transmission Project Group. (2024). Erratum to "Learnings from the Australian first few X household transmission project for COVID-19" [The Lancet Regional Health - Western Pacific 28 (2022) 100573].. The Lancet regional health. Western Pacific, 46, 101094.
DOI WoS1
2024 Morris, D., Maclean, J., & Black, A. J. (2024). Computation of random time-shift distributions for stochastic population models.. Journal of mathematical biology, 89(3), 33.
DOI Scopus1 WoS1 Europe PMC3
2024 Li, K., Green, E. J. F., Tronnolone, H., Tam, A. K. Y., Black, A. J., Gardner, J. M., . . . Binder, B. J. (2024). An off-lattice discrete model to characterise filamentous yeast colony morphology. PLoS Computational Biology, 20(11), e1012605-1-e1012605-20.
DOI Scopus4 WoS6 Europe PMC6
2024 Bourrat, P., Takacs, P., Doulcier, G., Nitschke, M. C., Black, A. J., Hammerschmidt, K., & Rainey, P. B. (2024). Individuality Through Ecology: Rethinking the Evolution of Complex Life From an Externalist Perspective. Ecology and Evolution, 14(12), e70661-1-e70661-13.
DOI Scopus4 WoS4 Europe PMC2
2024 O’loughlin, L., Maclean, J., & Black, A. (2024). Neural Likelihood Approximation for Integer Valued Time Series Data. Transactions on Machine Learning Research, 2024.
2023 Nitschke, M. C., Black, A. J., Bourrat, P., & Rainey, P. B. (2023). The effect of bottleneck size on evolution in nested Darwinian populations.. Journal of Theoretical Biology, 561, 111414-1-111414-12.
DOI Scopus7 WoS7 Europe PMC5
2023 Yuan, R., Pourmousavi, S. A., Soong, W. L., Black, A. J., Liisberg, J. A. R., & Lemos-Vinasco, J. (2023). A synthetic dataset of Danish residential electricity prosumers. Scientific Data, 10(1), 371-1-371-15.
DOI Scopus24 WoS19 Europe PMC7
2023 O'Loughlin, L., Maclean, J., & Black, A. (2023). Neural Likelihood Approximation for Integer Valued Time Series Data.
2022 Marcato, A., Black, A., Walker, J., Morris, D., Meagher, N., Price, D., . . . the Australian FFX Household Transmission Project Group. (2022). Learnings from the Australian First Few X Household Transmission Project for COVID-19.
DOI
2022 Shearer, F. M., Walker, J., Tellioglu, N., McCaw, J. M., McVernon, J., Black, A., & Geard, N. (2022). Rapid assessment of the risk of SARS-CoV-2 importation: case study and lessons learned. Epidemics, 38, 1-9.
DOI Scopus7 Europe PMC7
2022 Nitschke, M., Black, A., Bourrat, P., & Rainey, P. (2022). The Effect of Bottleneck Size on Evolution in Nested Darwinian Populations.
DOI
2022 Marcato, A. J., Black, A. J., Walker, C. R., Morris, D., Meagher, N., Price, D. J., . . . Australian FFX Household Transmission Project Group. (2022). Learnings from the Australian first few X household transmission project for COVID-19.. Lancet Reg Health West Pac, 28, 100573.
DOI Scopus8 WoS10 Europe PMC8
2021 Ballard, P. G., Black, A. J., & Ross, J. V. (2021). Inference of population-level disease transmissibility from
household-structured symptom onset data.
2021 Tong, A., Sorrell, T. C., Black, A. J., Caillaud, C., Chrzanowski, W., Li, E., . . . Zoellner, H. (2021). Research priorities for COVID-19 sensor technology. Nature Biotechnology, 39(2), 144-147.
DOI Scopus33 Europe PMC24
2020 Black, A. J., Bourrat, P., & Rainey, P. B. (2020). Ecological scaffolding and the evolution of individuality. Nature Ecology and Evolution, 4(3), 426-436.
DOI Scopus78 WoS71 Europe PMC63
2020 Alahmadi, A., Belet, S., Black, A., Cromer, D., Flegg, J. A., House, T., . . . Zarebski, A. E. (2020). Influencing public health policy with data-informed mathematical models of infectious diseases: Recent developments and new challenges.. Epidemics, 32, 100393.
DOI Scopus37 WoS33 Europe PMC29
2020 Moss, R., Wood, J., Brown, D., Shearer, F. M., Black, A. J., Glass, K., . . . McVernon, J. (2020). Coronavirus disease model to inform transmission reducing measures and health system preparedness, Australia. Emerging Infectious Diseases, 26(12), 2844-2853.
DOI Scopus24 WoS25 Europe PMC54
2019 Black, A. (2019). Importance sampling for partially observed temporal epidemic models. Statistics and Computing, 29(4), 617-630.
DOI Scopus7 WoS6
2019 Walker, J. N., Black, A. J., & Ross, J. V. (2019). Bayesian model discrimination for partially-observed epidemic models. Mathematical Biosciences, 317, 108266-1-108266-13.
DOI Scopus3 WoS3 Europe PMC1
2019 Black, A., Bourrat, P., & Rainey, P. (2019). Ecological scaffolding and the evolution of individuality: the transition from cells to multicellular life.
DOI Europe PMC1
2018 Yan, A., Black, A., McCaw, J., Rebuli, N., Ross, J., Swan, A., & Hickson, R. (2018). The distribution of the time taken for an epidemic to spread between two communities. Mathematical Biosciences, 303, 139-147.
DOI Scopus4 WoS5 Europe PMC3
2017 Black, A., Geard, N., McCaw, J., McVernon, J., & Ross, J. (2017). Characterising pandemic severity and transmissibility from data collected during first few hundred studies. Epidemics, 19, 61-73.
DOI Scopus33 WoS29 Europe PMC25
2017 Walker, J., Ross, J., & Black, A. (2017). Inference of epidemiological parameters from household stratified data. PLoS ONE, 12(10), e0185910-1-e0185910-21.
DOI Scopus6 WoS5 Europe PMC3
2016 Lydeamore, M., Bean, N., Black, A., & Ross, J. (2016). Choice of antiviral allocation scheme for pandemic influenza depends on strain transmissibility, delivery delay and stockpile size. Bulletin of Mathematical Biology, 78(2), 293-321.
DOI Scopus2 WoS1 Europe PMC2
2015 Ross, J., & Black, A. (2015). Contact tracing and antiviral prophylaxis in the early stages of a pandemic: the probability of a major outbreak. Mathematical Medicine and Biology, 32(3), 331-343.
DOI Scopus9 WoS8 Europe PMC6
2015 Black, A., & Ross, J. (2015). Computation of epidemic final size distributions. Journal of Theoretical Biology, 367, 159-165.
DOI Scopus29 WoS25 Europe PMC15
2014 Black, A., House, T., Keeling, M., & Ross, J. (2014). The effect of clumped population structure on the variability of spreading dynamics. Journal of Theoretical Biology, 359, 45-53.
DOI Scopus10 WoS11 Europe PMC9
2013 Black, A., & Ross, J. (2013). Estimating a Markovian epidemic model using household serial interval data from the early phase of an epidemic. PLoS One, 8(8), 1-8.
DOI Scopus11 WoS9 Europe PMC9
2013 Black, A., House, T., Keeling, M., & Ross, J. (2013). Epidemiological consequences of household-based antiviral prophylaxis for pandemic influenza. Journal of the Royal Society. Interface, 10(81), 1-10.
DOI Scopus32 WoS29 Europe PMC26
2012 Black, A., Traulsen, A., & Galla, T. (2012). Mixing times in evolutionary game dynamics. Physical Review Letters, 109(2), 1-5.
DOI Scopus26 WoS29 Europe PMC15
2012 Black, A., & McKane, A. (2012). Stochastic formulation of ecological models and their applications. Trends in Ecology & Evolution, 27(6), 337-345.
DOI Scopus199 WoS193 Europe PMC109
2011 Black, A., & McKane, A. (2011). WKB calculation of an epidemic outbreak distribution. Journal of Statistical Mechanics: Theory and Experiment, 2011(12), 1-17.
DOI Scopus23 WoS23
2010 Black, A. J., & McKane, A. J. (2010). Stochastic amplification in an epidemic model with seasonal forcing. Journal of Theoretical Biology, 267(1), 85-94.
DOI Scopus59 Europe PMC41
2010 Black, A. J., & McKane, A. J. (2010). Stochasticity in staged models of epidemics: Quantifying the dynamics of whooping cough. Journal of the Royal Society Interface, 7(49), 1219-1227.
DOI Scopus37 Europe PMC25
2009 Black, A. J., McKane, A. J., Nunes, A., & Parisi, A. (2009). Stochastic fluctuations in the susceptible-infective-recovered model with distributed infectious periods. Physical Review E Statistical Nonlinear and Soft Matter Physics, 80(2).
DOI Scopus42

Year Citation
2025 Yuan, R., Ranjbar, H., Ali Pourmousavi, S., Soong, W. L., Black, A. J., Liisberg, J. A. R., & Lemos-Vinasco, J. (2025). A New Measure to Quantify the Similarity of Load Profile Time-Series. In Conference Proceedings 2025 IEEE International Conference on Energy Technologies for Future Grids Etfg 2025 (pp. 1-6). IEEE.
DOI

Year Citation
2024 Li, K., Green, E., Tronnolone, H., Tam, A., Black, A., Gardner, J., . . . Binder, B. (2024). An off-lattice discrete model to characterise filamentous yeast colony morphology.
DOI Europe PMC1
2023 Yuan, R., Pourmousavi, S. A., Soong, W. L., Black, A. J., Liisberg, J. A. R., & Lemos-Vinasco, J. (2023). A New Time Series Similarity Measure and Its Smart Grid Applications.

Date Role Research Topic Program Degree Type Student Load Student Name
2025 Co-Supervisor Methods for inference and forecasting in mechanistic models with unresolved processes Doctor of Philosophy Doctorate Full Time Mr Liam Andrew Alex Blake
2024 Principal Supervisor Mathematical modelling of the evolution of ecologically scaffolded life cycles Master of Philosophy Master Full Time Mr Daniel John Fraterman
2022 Principal Supervisor More than just a result: using cycle threshold values in household epidemic modelling Doctor of Philosophy Doctorate Full Time Mr Dylan John Morris

Date Role Research Topic Program Degree Type Student Load Student Name
2022 - 2025 Co-Supervisor Aggregated Prosumer Flexibility: An Integrated Approach from Data to Effective Demand Response Program Doctor of Philosophy Doctorate Full Time Mr Rui Yuan
2022 - 2026 Principal Supervisor Computation of random time-shift distributions with applications to within- and between-host epidemic models Doctor of Philosophy Doctorate Full Time Mr Dylan John Morris
2021 - 2024 Principal Supervisor Estimating Epidemic Final-Size Probabilities and Correlated Pseudo-Marginal Inference Methods Master of Philosophy Master Part Time Mr Michael Fairbrother
2021 - 2023 Principal Supervisor Quantifying the onset of atrial fibrillation as a phase transition from synchrony into chaos Doctor of Philosophy Master Full Time Mr Luke Phillip O'Loughlin
2021 - 2023 Principal Supervisor A Modelling Framework for Estimating the Risk of Importation of a Novel Disease Master of Philosophy Master Full Time Mr Antonio Max Parrella
2020 - 2023 Principal Supervisor Inference Methods for General Stochastic Epidemic Models Master of Philosophy Master Full Time Miss Shan Shan Lin
2019 - 2021 Principal Supervisor Computation of random time-shift distributions with applications to within- and between-host epidemic models Doctor of Philosophy Master Full Time Mr Dylan John Morris
2018 - 2021 Principal Supervisor Mathematical Modelling of the Early Stages of Multicellular Evolution Doctor of Philosophy Doctorate Full Time Mr Matthew Cody Nitschke
2016 - 2020 Co-Supervisor Bayesian Inference and Model Selection for Partially-Observed, Continuous-Time, Stochastic Epidemic Models Doctor of Philosophy Doctorate Full Time Mr James Nicholas Walker
2015 - 2017 Co-Supervisor Epidemiological Characterisation of 1918 Pandemic Influenza Aboard Ships Master of Philosophy Master Full Time Mr Lachlan David Bubb
2015 - 2017 Co-Supervisor Household Models for Endemic Diseases Master of Philosophy Master Full Time Mr Jonathon James Pantelis
2014 - 2016 Co-Supervisor Inference Methods for First Few Hundred Studies Master of Philosophy Master Full Time Mr James Nicholas Walker
2013 - 2015 Co-Supervisor Approximations of Stochastic Household Models for Comparing Antiviral Allocation Schemes Master of Philosophy Master Full Time Michael John Lydeamore

Date Role Membership Country
2017 - ongoing Treasurer ANZIAM SA Australia
2017 - 2020 Treasurer ANZIAM Mathematical Biology Special Interest Group Australia

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